FRENCH ELECTIONS

This is not really a travel related post. But I guess no one can travel to France those days without beign dragged into the French politics.

I would be interested in your views on the French polls. Okay, we have now on the second round of the election Nicolas Sarozy vs Segolene Royal. My - French - husband is not too keen on Royal, doubting her competence for the job and criticising her old fashion conservative policies. Some kind of back to 70s and 80s French socialism that did not much good to the country. (bear with me, it's not always easy to summarise a French talking politics...)
On the other hand, Sarkozy is somewhat a controversial figure, being portrayed by his opponent as dangerous. But with an image of being dynamic enough to bring about change.

I am interested in non-French views on that (for those somewhat interested in French polls anyways). Mainly what is your perception towards those two politicians. Who you think is best and why.

Okay. I'm more French than non-French, but I was born in the US and lived there for the first 20 years of my life, so I am well aware of different political perceptions.

I like Ségolène Royal a lot. I know that she is not experienced and has made a number of mistakes. But I think that she would represent France in a way more fabulous than we have seen in the last 50 years or more. As for inexperience, that is what the political team is for, and I trust Royal's instincts for finding the right people for the right job.

As for Nicolas Sarkozy, I am afraid that he is in need of psychiatric help. His political options are completely honorable, even though I oppose them, but his megalomania is appalling. I am also horrified that the press has hidden the fact that his wife has left him after filing a police complaint for domestic violence. She has appeared with him at a few events but only under total coercion. As the French press is 90% controlled by right wing interests in France, a gag has been placed on the journalists hoping to continue their careers.

Those rumours about Sarkozy are extremely disturbing - is there really any substance to them? I always appreciated the fact that the French press did not discuss private lives - nobody's business "who goes to bed with whom" as long as consenting adults are involved - but conjugal violence, like rape or paedophilia, is another matter altogether. Sarkozy certainly showed extreme verbal violence to his colleague Azouz Begag... I do fear he is rather a loose cannon.

I'm if anything to the left of Royal, so there is no contest there, but like Kerouac I find someone unhinged (whether left, right or centre) far more of a danger than someone with whose policies I may disagree.

Here in Québec we follow French politics closely, and the elections are front-page news and top stories on radio and TV news bulletins.

I'm Scottish - but girlfriend is Parisienne and I spend a lot of time in Paris. So an outysider's view:

First off - I HATED Thatcher and all that she stood for. But she did break the unions. Something that has to happen in France, if you're not to avoid a total economic collapse. Your unions have too much power, and any economic reform is thwarted. Sarkozy is the man to take the unions (very powerful in France) on. But it won't be pretty - and it will last a long time - French unions strike at the mention of change, so can just imagine the reaction when faced with a real change.

So, in a way, I think France need someone like him. Just not HIM though. As Kerouac2 points out, he is in serious need of psychiatric help. What is it about short-arses? Napoleon, Hitler - now Sarko. I'm sure he could start a fight in an empty room.

On the other hand, I am all for Segolene's political stance. But she is not the person to effect the change in France that is really needed.

Le Pen did bugger all in the first round. I suspect that the record turnout was in response to what happened last time (Le Pen in the second round). Nobody, except Le Pen's supporters, wanted to have to go through that again. Voting for an unwanted candidate (Chirac) just to stop a right-wing nutter becoming President of France.

So if Segolene does win, and the economic situation worsens (and even more immigrants arrive to take advantage of the very liberal French welfare system, then I fear a lurch to the extreme right. So the first female President of France could be replaced by another female - Marine Le Pen! Now that really scares me.

But so does Sarkozy.

Moraq -- France is the industrialized nation with the lowest percentage of unionized workers in the world. How can you say that unions are powerful in France?

Lagatta -- I would normally not comment on the private life of a candidate, but the husband of one of my colleagues is the head of security of a major politician. He was in fact one of the security agents for Mitterrand in the 1980's -- and back then he was right wing. After all, he is a policeman. He has evolved over time -- and I am not saying that he was correct to do so, but he has had insights into the world of politics and has seen how rotten it is. He is not a big fan of Royal (because his boss, the former Socialist minister of the Interior, Daniel Vaillant, does not like her -- he was hoping for the return of Jospin), but he is very honest in the information that filters from the political world. He has extemely intimate information about Sarkozy (after all -- he was the head of security for the previous Minister of the Interior and Sarkozy replaced him, so he has many many contacts in the domain). The information about Sarkozy is not good at all.

#4. Don't dispute your figures. But. The small number of unionised workers are all in key public areas. And they don't need to be asked twice to go on strike. Don't think I'll be spending much time in Paris come September.

#7. I'm a staunch supporter of worker's rights. I don't mind being "inconvenienced" when it's in a good cause. I just feel that when/if Sarkozy becomes Predident, there will be a MAJOR fight with the unions or "coordinations" over employment legislation. The reason there has been no major longterm industrial action in France is solely due to one fact - the Government ALWAYS caves in. Sarkozy won't. Hence my fears of MAJOR industrial action. And I fear it will be a lot more than an "inconvenience".

And September is the favourite time for strikes. No point on going on strike during the summer, when the members are all on holiday anyway. Wait for 'la rentrée'.

British, have lived in France, involved politically here, very interested observer.

Morag, I don't want to pick a fight with you but whenever I read/hear anyone say that the unions are too powerful anywhere I always want to ask "Can you imagine how employers would behave if there weren't any trade unions?" In my experience, workers don't get involved in industrial action unless they have a sincere grievance. Nonetheless, whenever there is industrial action the media usually point the finger at the employees rather than at the employers.

As an outsider looking in, Sarkozy scares the living daylights out of me. All his rhetoric about the disaffected youths who rioted in the Paris suburbs makes me think that he's not in the least bit interested in looking for the causes but rather imposing authoritarian control to try to prevent it from recurring. A surefire recipe for more unrest. Add to that his neo-liberalism in economics and you have all the makings of a Thatcher-Bush world where profits take precedence over quality of life and a polarised, greed-motivated society that typified the UK twenty years ago.

Royal may be flawed but at least she offers a vision of humanity that transcends the profit motive and the cudgel as a means of social control.

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<hr>My - French - husband is not too keen on Royal, doubting her competence <hr></blockquote>

I do not want to comment her political agenda but if Royal would have been a man, she would not get all the critique about competence and lack of experience as she gets now.
Anyhow, i am afraid she will not win the elections.

The Independent has an article about the Sarkozys and the cover-up Sarkozy couple cover-up - it does not mention conjugal violence though. I have seen many websites that do, but one can find anything on the web, including conspiracy theories and screwball racist obsessions.

Evidently Royal is slowly closing the gap, but it would take a lot for her to be able to win...

Thanks all for your feedback. Looks like Royal definitely is your favourite. If I may comment on your reactions, looks like it's more "Tout sauf Sarkozy" (an aversion to the man and his policies) than a attraction to Royal.
If we take a more positive path, what is it that you like the most about her policies? What do you think will change in France if she gain the presidency?

It will be Sarkozy. Sego has played her experience as mum of (how many?) children as trump card too often, annoying the hell out of a lot of people. And she's not all that clued up in politics in general and in foreign politics in particular. And she's made some key enemies in her own party. Big clue: all the usual opportunists are currently sucking up to Sarko.

Funny, I've hardly heard her mention her maternal role a single time since she used it in the struggle to get the Socialist nomination -- that was in November 2006.

Donno if you followed the debate yesterday but she mentioned it once again (I am a mother of 4, bla bla bla)

And that's all you retained from a debate that lasted 2h40? I remember quite a few things from the debate, but that didn't strike me, and I didn't find it in the transcript of the debate in today's newspaper, so I am particularly interested in the "bla bla bla" part.

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<hr>And that's all you retained from a debate that lasted 2h40?<hr></blockquote>
No, I also retained that she was very agressive, that she lost her nerves and that she kept things very general ("I will let social partners talk about it said 9 times to avoid responding to questions"). Quite funny given her trying to portray her opponent as divisive and agressive, she was the one actually divise and agressive during the debate.

As for the bla bla, it's in her conclusion, when she pathetically said she could be a woman and do politics, and that Angela Merker was great hinting she would thus also do a good job as president.

The debate actually convinced me she definitely was not up to the job. And I am sorry to say that, it would have been great having a woman president of France. She simply is not credible.

Interesting take. While most of the French press said that the debate was a draw, most of the European media (except Le Soir) said that Royal was the winner just for standing up to Sarkozy

ITV: Royal's fiery performance subdues Sarko
CNN : Sparks fly in fierce Sarkozy, Royal TV debate

Anyway, François Bayrou has announced that he will definitely not vote for Sarkozy.

well, I guess journalists are more interested in the show than substance. (journalists complained in 95 that the debate was too consesual, not enough fights between Chirac and Jospin)
All Royal's supporters just said she was good because she was agressive towards Sarkozy. None mentioned her programme (indeed, she did not answer much question, the whole thing is still quite blurry, a mix of pleasing the extreme left and the centre).

An info I just received:

Sondage Opinionway : Nicolas Sarkozy l'emporte
Le candidat UMP a été jugé le plus convaincant par 53% des internautes
sondés à l'issue du débat de mercredi soir. Nicolas Sarkozy remporte son
duel avec la candidate socialiste sur tous les thèmes abordés, à l'exception
notable de la controverse sur les handicapés.

C'est le premier sondage réalisé après le duel du second tour, et il est en
faveur du candidat UMP. Plus d'un téléspectateur sur deux du débat de
mercredi soir a jugé le candidat UMP «le plus convaincant», contre 31% pour
Ségolène Royal. La moitié des électeurs ayant voté François Bayrou au
premier tour ont préféré Sarkozy, 25% seulement d'entre eux ayant jugé Royal
meilleure. Enfin, le dernier quart des électeurs centristes estime que «ni l'un
ni l'autre» des candidats n'a été le plus convainquant.

To sum it up, it says that Sarkozy was deemed the most convincing. Ony a third says Royal was.

And it also says that it was a web poll. We know how scientific and representative those things are.

You're right Kerouac2.

Anyway, some real polls are coming out tonight and tomorrow morning. They'll probably confirm what the last 50 polls have said.

The good news is: in 3 days, no more polls!! (mmh, we'll get the parliamentary elections afterwards...)

Sarkozy comes across as having "something of the night about him" to use a quote about another politico. He's also Chirac's political love child & thinks highly of Bush & Blair which should be enough to raise alarm in anybody except the most rabid right-winger. Even if you are a rabid right winger you should be worried because he'll do what he thinks is best for France rather than poodling up.

As for Royal - comes across as a bit of a lightweight. Would her fella - like Cheney & Bush - be the real decision maker?

Otherwise it's like being offered a choice of ways to be executed - I'd rather not to be in a situation where I had to make such a choice

Now what happened to that nice Le Pen boy?

Here is the completely unscientific CNN poll on the debate:

Which candidate do you think came out on top in the French presidential TV debate?

Royal 66% 2864 votes

Sarkozy 34% 1496 votes

Of course, CNN is considered to be a left wing channel by American standards...

PARIS (Reuters) - France's right-wing presidential candidate Nicolas Sarkozy has extended his lead over Socialist rival Segolene Royal ahead of Sunday's second round vote, according to a new poll on Thursday.

The CSA survey for Le Parisien newspaper and i-Tele television station said Sarkozy had the backing of 53 percent of voters against 47 percent for Royal.

The poll was carried out on Thursday, after a television debate between the two on Wednesday night.

The previous CSA poll taken on April 25 gave Sarkozy support of 52 percent and 48 percent for Royal.

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<hr>He's also Chirac's political love child<hr></blockquote>
I alm afraid this statement is incorrect. Chirac and Sarkozy can't stand each other. Chirac has tried everything to prevent Sarkozy rise to power during the last 12 years of his presidency.

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<hr>thinks highly of Bush & Blair<hr></blockquote>
You'll be interested to know that Royal was the one praising the most Blair. Which actually may be the most reassuring thing given the dire need for the French left to reform and modernise.

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<hr>Now what happened to that nice Le Pen boy? <hr></blockquote>
10,5% of the poll. Way less than 5 years ago, but still several millions of people voted for him during the first round.