To the extent there's a trend at all, it is away from cyrillic.
Moldova and Azerbaijan have both (officially) dropped cyrillic in favour of latin based scripts although cyrillic is still in everyday use among older people and in pockets. I can see how the Russians would be sensitive about this.
I suspect the inconsistent implementations of cyrillic in turkestan is just a cock-up rather than a divided and conquer strategy. See section 4 of this paper for an interesting discussion of these points.
http://cahiers.gutenberg.eu.org/cg-bin/article/CG_1998___28-29_32_0.pdf
Although new alphabets look daunting, learning a new alpabet is quick, much less effort than learning a new language. Its taken me years to get reasonably proficient in Russian but the alphabet took only a few hours. In the former Yugoslavia where serbian and croatian differed principally in the alphabet, the entire population quickly became proficient in both latin and cyrillic alphabets. I'd expect the same to happen eg between Tajik and Persian.

