Air Raro owner Ewan Smith says I can quote him with the following clarification:
"Well some of them have it right.
The facts
We lost over half a million NZD on northern group services in the past twelve months. Over the years we are one of the few that have invested in the northern group hopeful of some form of economic development with fishing and pearls. It has not happened. Fishing is non-existent and the pearl industry struggles. There are no breaks on tax or anything else.
Its 1300 kms from Rarotonga to Manihiki. The population is 300. At the end of that flight you have a rough coral runway capable of handling aircraft of the size of the Bandeirante. We have owned the Saab 340 for seven years now and in that time there has been no progress toward upgrading the runways. Aircraft such as an ATR72 require a sealed runway.
The fuel load required to travel that distance plus an alternate leaves payload for 8 passengers with a 10 kilo baggage allowance
The round trip fuel cost from Rarotonga to Manihiki and back in a Bandeirante is now $5000. (Our fule in Manihiki is costing $3.75 per litre to land.) A fully costed round trip to the northern group (8 hours flying) is around $16000. You do the maths.
Loads are generally directional coinciding with the pearl seeding/harvest cycle so you get 8 passengers one way and maybe 2 the other.
There are hundreds of populated islands in the South Pacific with no air service at all. European tourists cannot go there either unless they are very keen.
So there is no sinister plot to rip off Japanese pearl technicians and the like. The cold hard facts are that there is no business case for a 'normal' air service.
Cheers/Ewan "
Silvano---the round trip from Rarotonga to Aitutaki is about NZ$304. With exchange rate at about NZ$1 = US. 74, that's about US$224, so it's a bit higher than the RT from PPT to BOB. They used to both be about US$150, but that's when the exchange rate had dipped quite a bit a few yrs ago. In general it's been about .67 or higher for most of the last yr. so that flight has been US$200 or so RT.
Most of Air Tahiti's planes are a lot bigger than Air Raro's. Air Raro does use a 40-seater to Aitutaki, but there isn't the demand to need that plane for Manihiki. Then again, it's the chicken and egg problem. With such higher prices, tourists won't go there.
Islandboi---I think you may have seen photos by Rich McIntyre somewhere. He stayed at my place (Shangri-La) on a couple of occasions, and took a trip to Manihiki for about ten days during one of those trips. It was probably in 2004 or 2005. I encouraged him to post a report on the TT, so he may have put a link to his photo album. The album is out there somewhere. They were great photos.
Crossie, good to see Ewan's comments. To those that have not met him, he is a straight and honest guy, so I personally would trust his explanation for the situation there. Which then means, to me, that domestic air fares all over the S.P. could rise a bit in the near future.
Maybe someone could start a sail-ferry, slowly heading in a large circle around the islands. Hop on and off, etc.
It's 290 Euros so US $415 (the dollar must have fallen more overnight), high season round trip from PPT to BOB (tourist fare). I think that is how they help keep the fares to the outer islands relatively low.
That is charge a high fare for tourists to Bora-Bora (expecially) and the other touristed islands to support relatively inexpensive flights to the islands that are further out from Tahiti.
Niue, 600 miles from Rarotonga, population 1200 with a substancial infrastructure and a weekly Air NZ link sounds more viable than flying to Manihiki for Air Raro. But it looks like that dream won't happen. Indeed I think fossil fuel depletion is putting the writing on the wall. Airfares will never be the same and will continually go up exponentially. Get out those paddles.
I have met Ewan Smith and agree with Raro's comments about him. The economics are such that air travel to the Northern Group just does not pencil out. Maybe with more demand some form of regularly scheduled ferry service can be implemented to serve these wonderful locations. I am working on an update to my Caribbean Guidebook and there is a lot of talk about ferry service returning to that region. The islands are closer and the traffic is greater, but I think in the long run there is a better chance of ferry service than by air. I know that a lot of people would travel to the Northern Group if they could count on a boat service that was reliable and return to pick them up in two or three weeks. I have received numerous E-mails worldwide from people picking my brain about my trip on the Mana Nui. There are a lot of people who would love to, say spend three weeks over on Rakahanga on a "Robinson Crusoe vacation." They just need to know at the end they will be picked up. Anybody out there interested in running a boat service in the South Pacific?
Papa Mike
Papa Mike's Cook Islands Handbook
Not sure if they would be into passenger services but I will talk to the Reef people. They have forked out in excess of 10million on fishing boats for Niue not to mention their regular fleet so maybe they will be interested in diversifying further. I guess it would depend on the maths. A Tonga, Niue, Rarotonga, Aitutaki, Northern group, Samoas circuit would be great.
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