Money

Yikes - the UK pound has been dropping steadily against the Yen ever since I started checking the rates a couple of weeks ago.
I need to buy some Yen before my holiday in April, are there any financial whizz kids here who think I should buy now, or is there hope for a better rate within the next 3 weeks?

The Yen tends to strengthen because of Japan's balance of accounts surplus. This ends up getting countered periodically when the Japanese government introduces stimulus(prints more money)
The pound will be on a long term decline because of Brexit.

Still it isn't falling very fast and it is just trading within a few percent over the past year. If 2% cost increase(or decrease) makes or breaks your vacation, you shouldnt be traveling at all.

Of course it doesn't, but £500 will buy me nearly 5000 Yen less than it would have done 2 weeks ago, and converting that to beer money I don't like it.
Also superstition - I know that if I buy now, it will go up tomorrow....

I wouldnt worry too much

Feb 2nd was a local high over the past 18 months. It traded at 156.5. That was the best you could get.

Within the last year though the pound was only worth 135.9
Over the last 5 months it hasn't gotten too far away from 148.5
Today it is 146.2

I'd say it's chances of going back up to 148.5 are pretty good, probably a little better than it losing more ground.

Of course it doesn't, but £500 will buy me nearly 5000 Yen less than it would have done 2 weeks ago, and converting that to beer money I don't like it.

2 weeks ago it was trading at 149.3, not 156.5. So it's not 5000 yen, it 1400 yen. Literally 1-2 beers in Japan

Personally, I'd wait until you get to Japan and get money from ATM there. You'll get better exchange rate (at that time), safer, and more convenience. The exchange rate difference between now and then will likely be big enough for you to pay for a train ticket.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/youngadventure/albums/72157689612280841

I watch it and it goes up and down. As said, the big fall was post when the morons won and voted for Brexit. The morning before the result was announced it went to a high, then crashed. I went to Japan a couple of months later and I reckon it cost me £800 extra.

On last year's trip it had recovered to about 145, so going the right way. The recent high was also seen against $, etc, because it was a pound thing as well. BoE hinted at interest rate rise, a bit of good news on Brexit trade negotiations, etc.

No one can accurately say, because it is governed by so many, sometimes seemingly inconsequential factors, it may well creep by April, or it may go down a little, it is unlikely there will be a major change.

How were you planning on buying your ¥? Only the online places in the UK are worth considering as dealing charges can easily wipe out any small gain. I buy in Japan using a no charge card in seven eleven no charge ATMs. That can be worth a few % points over someone using a card with changes (2-3%) and somewhere like Post Office ATMs that now charge 1.something.

The call is yours, but I doubt you will make a killing and you may be disappointed.

Coincidentally I just checked into a hotel and Bloomberg was on the TV and they were talking about the yen. I only caught the end of it, but it seems that the ¥ high was due to stuff relating to their recent stock market high. Now it's coming down so the ¥ is strengthening. It's more to do with market dealings than any inherent strength.

They were talking it in relation to the $, what you have to remember is you are £s and that has a bit of a life of its own at the moment as I said above.

If Theresa pulls a blinder and Carney drops rate rise hint the pound could soar - for a day or two, but I doubt it.

Unless you see anything absolutely concrete and can get a good rate with low charges, I'd stick with my and others advice to wait. Better to spend your time checking your card charges. What are they?

When I started checking the online rates I could have bought ¥78000 for £500, now it’s 73000, so I stand by my figures, if not my dates. Seems I started looking around the highest point - shame....

I will be using an online company, I usually use Fairfx as their rates (for € or $) are consistently good and they deliver to your home for free. I will of course be taking a couple of debit cards with me, but past experience has taught me not to trust the British banks and I far prefer to have the bulk of my holiday money in cash.

Although I doubt there will be anything sensible in her speech today, I’ll wait to hear what May has to say.
It’s come to a pretty pass when I find myself agreeing with Michael Heseltine and Jonh Major, but UK politics has become completely unreal these days!

Have you thought of getting a Halifax Clarity credit card? No overseas charges. Pay it off electronically as soon as you make withdrawal to avoid interest charges. Also you get virtually the market rate, much better than any exchange house.

I reckon it saved me £45 in charges compared to previous trip using my Nationwide debit card. No need to carry huge wads of cash.

There's a big debate in academic finance about whether you (or almost anyone else) can time the market. Burton Malkiel's "A random walk down Wall St" is the classic book arguing against; it's overly verbose, but - if you are OK knowing that you'll skim some of it - it does collect all the main arguments.

To simplify the bottom line: if you're trying to call the market, you're trying to make money from professional FX traders at large trading firms and banks. They may not be smarter or anything else than you are, but this is what they do, day in and day out, for years on end - and they've got good support.

If you accept this perspective, the best response is to try to minimise your transaction costs (e.g. the Halifax cards, only exchanging what you need...).

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