Travel advisory - Snowstorms in Annapurna National Park

What’s going on?
Severe snowstorms have hit the Annapurna National Park in Nepal, and at least 21 trekkers have died near the Thorung La on the Annapurna Circuit Trek and in Mustang, including travellers from India, Nepal, Israel, Canada and Poland. Emergency services are continuing to rescue people trapped in affected areas.

What are the latest travel warnings?
The general advice is to seek local guidance before visiting Annapurna National Park, particularly the area around the Thorung La. If you are planning a trek in the area, it would be wise to delay the trip until the trails have been declared safe. For those already trekking, the advice is to monitor weather changes careful and to follow the advice of guides and local authorities. The FCO has the following warning:

There are reports of unseasonal heavy snowstorms in the Annapurna National Park making roads impassable with severe disruptions to power supplies. If you are trekking you should monitor local weather updates and follow the advice of local authorities and guides.

Is Nepal safe?
Most of Nepal is perfectly safe, including most trekking areas. The snowstorms that have hit the Annapurna region were an unexpected result of Tropical Cyclone Hudhud, which passed over India and Nepal at the weekend. However, it is always wise to check weather conditions and to seek local advice before starting any trek. Solo trekking, without a guide or companions, is never recommended.

Are attractions and transport still open?
Kathmandu and other lower-altitude regions are unaffected by the disaster. At the present time, the freak weather has been restricted to the area around the Annapurna National Park. Electricity supplies are disrupted in the Annapurna region, and roads and trails are likely to be blocked until emergency crews are able to clear affected areas. Flights may also be disrupted - contact your airline if you have a flight booked into or out of Jomsom or other airstrips in the region.

*More resources: *
Here is the latest news on the disaster from the world media:

BBC: bbc.co.uk

CNN: cnn.com

Local media: Ekantipur

I have been reading about this tragedy almost everywhere, nothing can be said right now all we can do is wait.

I have to take issue with that tired old phrase "unseasonal" heavy snow when discussing bad weather in Nepal in October.

I experienced very heavy "unseasonal" snow (over 1 metre deep in 24 hours) when doing AC (for my first time) in mid Oct 2005 - we spent 5 nights at Manang as AC was effectively closed. After that we were able to carry on (though with some difficulty, especially when we crossed Thorung La), but many other people had their treks ruined as they were more time limited (I was in Nepal for 2 months that visit). As far as I am aware, no trekkers were killed due to that storm, but 17 climbers (Nepalis and foreigners) died on one of the Annapurnas in an avalanche. I also heard that over 100 yaks died, due to suffocation and exposure.

Last year hurricane (or typhoon?) Phailin dumped a lot of heavy snow across the Everest region in particular in Oct (both "my" guides were up there at that time), though as far as I know no one was killed by it. As well as 2013, in at least 2 other recent years there was quite a bit of disruption in the Everest region due to bad weather (though again, I think there were no fatalities). My main guide spent 8 consecutive nights at Lukla waiting for his next clients to fly in one Oct about 2-3 years ago - he was OK as the agency he was working for at the time was paying him, and he said it was very social for all the guides. No doubt others will know of other specific periods of "unseasonal" bad weather in Oct (I think there was a very heavy dump of snow, with trekker fatalities, in Oct 1995 - I was not in Nepal that year).

I am not, repeat not saying people should not trek in Oct, far from it, but they should always be aware of the risks, especially high up, if the weather turns bad. Saying that bad weather in Oct is "unseasonal" is not only inaccurate, but could cause some people to be, understandably, less careful, especially with regard to keeping an eye on any build up of cloud (which usually means trouble when you're high up).

I agree with rdcomments. Bad weather is possible in the mountains at any time. People need to have the equipment, mainly suitable clothing and some spare energy food such as chocolate, and knowledge to deal with such things. The importance of getting out of the wind cannot be overstated. They also need to have spare days so that they can wait out poor conditions. These things are true for any trek, at any time.

I do not mean the above as a comment on the people affected by the recent events. They are general comments.

A question for those of you with extensive mountaineering experience: How long would you think it would take for about a meter of widespread snowfall to clear out in areas like around TL? From what I understand, there's been about 80mm of rain in the Annapurna range from this storm, which is roughly equivalent to about a meter of snow. Obviously the actual depth is going to significantly higher in the actual pass - maybe 5-10 times as much. A week for something like TL to open up?

Thanks Joe for this timely summary. At least on the pictures the blue sky is back so this will help with rescue operations. A German website reported that most deaths occurred between the villages of Kangla and Fu, I wonder if they mean Kang La pass and Phu, which would be a side trip away from the main circuit, with far less places for shelter and presumably little infrastructure such as mobile phone coverage in case of emergency.

Pardon me for a comment on "solo trekking is never recommended". Solo trekking allows you to listen to your body. You can always stop for an extra day without holding the group up. You can turn around without any discussion. Nobody is disappointed if you decide not to go higher up. You don´t have to exhaust yourself trying to keep up with the faster hikers in your group, and you don´t have to wait for the slower ones. I´m a great fan of solo trekking, it has severe disadvantages in the less likely case of trouble and severe advantages in the very likely case that you´re not a perfect match for your group.

Post 4 - I understand your question, and I only have limited snow experience re trekking, but I'll have a stab at an answer. Hopefully others will be along as well on this.

In Oct 2005, we had about a metre (3 feet) of snow from Manang upwards. In places the snow had been shovelled off roof tops (as the weight could well cause roofs to collapse), so in some narrow passages it was very deep - I actually struggled quite a bit in places just to get out of Manang when we finally re-started trekking (though the 5 nights there were actually great fun - it was very social, lots of chatting, jokes, laughter, drinking, rumours (some very silly...) - most trekkers then were indy trekkers, due to the Maoist insurgency and the advice not to go trekking, but I digress).

Basically we walked in a narrow grove much of the way from Manang up to about the low camp at Thorung Phedi. Sometimes this was almost waist deep, other times just above the ankles. From the Thorung Phedi high camp, where we stopped for a cup of tea on our crossing day (we stayed at the low camp), until about 1 hour from the top of the pass, from re-looking at my photos, the snow was little different from when I did AC in Dec 2012 - ie about 2-3 inches deep on the trail, no doubt much deeper off the trail. However we were the last people over the pass that day, and got near the top about 12-1pm - for the last hour we were walking into the wind that builds up in the valley below (to the west) - the wind whipped up spin drift and basically filled the grove in the trail, which by then was about waist deep. This last hour to the top was extremely hard going - I was basically breaking trail thru the snow, and I was getting very cold (despite carrying about 17 kilos back then). We stopped at the tea hut at the top of the pass, did not take any photos at the top (it was too cold and there was a lot of snow blowing around - I was shivering), then after putting some more clothes on, we headed down - after 30-40 minutes we were out of the wind and everything got much, much easier.

As well as the very social atmosphere at Manang, the contrast of the pristine white snow against the incredibly blue skies from Manang to about 1 hour from the top of TL made for some amazing, fantastic views and photos, so the snow had its compensations. I did not hear about people crossing days later having any real problems - in my experience bad weather lasts only 2-3 days in Oct - Jan, so that is why it is fairly easy to wait it out (and much, much safer to do this).

In Oct 2013, Phailin dumped about 600mm (2 feet) of snow across much of the Everest region. Someone who did the 3 High Passes in Dec 2013 sent me some astonishing photos of hard, projecting ice on the west side of Cho La (a steep, high pass) - it seems it was the Phailin snow that had been formed into weirdly shaped, hard ice. It was totally different from anything I saw when I did the 3HPs in Jan 2010 and Dec 2010 - Jan 2011, when there was very little ice on the sides of the high passes - there is always thick, hard ice on the top of Cho La.

As above, see what others say, but conditions may be very localised. I am still planning to do the 3HPs again this Dec - Jan.

It's true that severe weather can occur at any time at altitude, but this has been a particularly severe weather event linked to Cyclone Hudhud, which also caused many deaths in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. I think the message has to be that people always need to respect the weather conditions and the advice of local people. Over the years, I've been caught in unexpectedly heavy snow a number of times in Nepal and there are risks that people don't consider even in light snow, such as mistakenly following stream beds instead of sticking to the trail. It's essential to have a healthy respect for the environment you are trekking in - it's always wiser to delay a trek or even cancel it rather than trying to push through in dangerous conditions. On which subject, porters and guides are often pressured by trekkers into continuing treks against their better judgement - remember that you are responsible for any staff you hire, and this includes making sure porters and guides are equipped for the conditions and not put in harms' way.

Post 5: you can trek with guides paid on a "daily rate" basis (this is what I now do - my last 5 treks were done this way, s will my next trek). Trekking this way it is totally unnecessary to have to stick to an itinerary, or a particular pace - I have the same independence as an indy trekker, but the company and so on of a guide (and I get on really well with my guides, who are brothers).

There are a number of ways of going trekking - it is not just either a group or solo. Even with other indy trekkers you can agree to stop and start as you wish - this is what I have done when trekking with other indy trekkers.

I have never trekked in any type of organised group.

Hi All,
I had a friend who was in Chhomrong on Sunday. How long would he have taken to get close to Thorung La? I am hoping he had not got too close when the weather hit!!! We can't reach him by phone. I don't know what direction he was doing the circuit in. Any advice much appreciated.
Thanks.

#9 if your friend is at Chhomrong, then he is not heading to Thorung La (or had already passed Thorung La days ago) - it is in a different direction. There will have no snow in Chhomromg. He might be heading to ABC, which, due to the weather situation, may also have snow higher up at MBCand ABC.

Thanks Anpijola, I think he may have been heading to Annapurna base camp so thankfully well away from Thorung La. Did that area avoid the severe weather?

Sorry just read your post properly :) re. ABC.

skyline1 #4:

Your question is rather difficult to answer categorically but I will give it a go.

The four things that generally remove snow are sun, rain, wind, and avalanche. Sun obviously melts snow which runs away as water. This can happen quite quickly, even for a 1m fall, if the slope receives full sun. Rain can probably be discounted on the Thorung La, which does not receive much. Wind can shift a surprising amount of snow in exposed places but tends to sweep those places bare whilst depositing snow in sheltered spots and on the lee side of a ridge or pass. Much depends on whether the newly fallen snow is wet or dry. Wet snow is usually more resistant to wind (and melting generally) but more likely to form avalanches quite quickly on the low angled, convex slopes on either side of the TL. Dry snow will blow away quickly in a strong wind but will be slower to avalanche on the TL slopes.

However, from the viewpoint of safety as opposed to comfort, it is not really the removal of snow that is important but its consolidation. It is consolidation that reduces the probability of avalanche, which is the real safety issue on the TL after substantial snowfall. Dry slab avalanches mainly occur at between 30 and 45o and are not likely on the TL path. However they would be possible from the concave flanks of Thorung Peak (south of the La) and Yakwakang (north of the La). Wet snow avalanches occur most readily on convex slopes and can form on gradients as low as 25o. They are much more likely to start on the TL path, particularly just before the top and just after the top.

Taking all that into consideration, I would be happy to cross the TL after 1m of dry snow after about three days of sun and wind. After 1m of wet snow I would wait longer - perhaps five days of sun and wind. If the weather was overcast, then add a few days for both.

Disclaimer: I am assuming quite a lot here. It is always better to follow competent local advice!

The American embassy in Kathmandu has set up an emergency number for people concerned about missing US citizens in the Annapurna region:
US Embassy in Nepal

There are live updates on rescue efforts from the Trekking Agencies' Association of Nepal

When I went up KP in 2007 it had snowed the previous day, and there was about a foot of snow on the track. Walking up at 4am there was a groove in the path from the trekkers ahead of us. After the sunrise we headed down about 8am, and the snow was almost completely melted, being in direct sunlight. I was totally surprised by this. So direct sun can melt snow at a rapid rate.

A question to "old Nepal hands" on this forum: I wonder if this tragedy was avoidable? Those sudden snowstorms were caused by the end phase of a cyclone that had ravaged India some days before. It seems that most cases of severe weather in Nepal trekking areas in high season (October-November) are caused by cyclones. I remember a similar case of Phailin cyclone (luckily without deaths) in mid-October 2013, as I was starting my trek. Such outbreaks are possible to predict at least a few days in advance, as the cyclone moves inland.

Maybe an "early warning system" can be established in Manang and lodges directly before the pass (Thorung Phedi, Thorung High Camp)? For example, in case of bad weather forecast notice would be sent to Manang (by the Himalayan Rescue Association, TAAN or ACAP?) and a big warning sign put on the trail, similarly to avalanche warning in mountains in Europe. A notice could be also sent to Thorung Phedi and Thorung HC to put a similar sign there and declare the trail closed.
Such closure would be needed usually only for 2-3 days, as in most cases fair weather returns quite quickly in October.

The cost of such system would be very low, as HRA, TAAN and ACAP are already present in Manang. What do you think about it? Maybe it would make sense to suggest it to them?

The latest news from the Trekking Agencies' Association of Nepal is that rescue efforts have been halted for the night in Manang and Mustang Districts because of poor visibility. The latest reports cite the death toll at 24, with up to 112 trekkers unaccounted for. TAAN will be publishing a detailed update later today.

If anyone has returned from the affected region in the last few days and can provide on-the-ground information, please get in touch with me directly via the forum.

The Trekking Agencies' Association of Nepal has published a list of trekkers rescued from Annapurna here - or navigate to http://www.taan.org.np/live/.

The latest news from Reuters on the rescue effort following the Annapurna disaster.

Thanks to Scoodly for ongoing input on this story.

If anyone has more news on the rescue effort, please post on this thread.

Thank you,
Joe

Update - TAAN has published photos from the rescue mission in the Annapurna region here - follow @Taan_News on Twitter for more updates.

Concerned relatives have created a Facebook page to share news and information here.

More information Annapurna rescue from the British Mountaineering Council.

I wonder if this tragedy was avoidable?

But wouldn`t that take some sense of responibility, integrity and planning by Nepali authorities?

See link what TIMS and other tourist revenues are spend on by the Nepal Tourism Board: booze, luxury travel, bouncers. Monies were syphoned off to private accounts of the acting CEO.

http://www.myrepublica.com/portal/index.php?action=news_details&news_id=84909

(A more detailed article was taken off the net yesterday.)

I find it irresponsible to label this catastrophe a "freak incident" or an "act of God" (trekking agency owner)? This thinking will only ensure that the current system stays in place and no steps will be taken.

Why did all other countries affected by cyclone Hudhud had warnings in place but Nepal authorities did absolutely nothing about it?

I did not know about this scandal concerning TIMS funds but, frankly, it does not surprise me at all. During my trek I also had an impression that the money spent on TIMS is barely reflected in any functioning trekkers managment system. Registration at checkpoints was rather lax, there was no requirement for lodge owners to register their guests (or at least to maintain a book for voluntary registration), not even mentioning more sophisticated ideas like a system for rescue insurance.

Maybe after this tragedy somebody in the Nepali authorities and/or TAAN will realise that a massive rescue action like the ongoing one actually costs much more than a simple warning system enabling timely information on the ground before extreme weather hits. A lot of potential trekkers will also be probably discouraged by news of what has just happened, so some effort to improve safety would minimize actual losses by trekking agencies, lodge owners etc.
I know it's a bit idealistic and in reality thinking on short-term gain will prevail, so we should probably expect only some more lobbying for prohibition of independent trekking now.

Only form of weather prediction that Nepal has is some satellite images form other countries and based on that what kind of prediction can be done? There are still no weather monitoring equipments at these remote locations and there was no way of predicting that this would happen. All warning that weather forecaster gave was that there will be rain for couple of days and there might be some flood. That's the level of weather forecast here in Nepal.

The only thing that could have prevented this massive loss of lives was with better forecast and that didn't happen.

Only form of weather prediction that Nepal has is some satellite images form other countries and based on that what kind of prediction can be done?

Actually there is no need for establishing a separate weather prediction system for Nepal, as that would be costly and there are several international forecasters that do the job quite well anyway (like http://www.mountain-forecast.com/ and several others).
A much cheaper solution would be better - a small office with 2-3 person working in shifts in Kathmandu or Pokhara that would monitor the weather forecasts on international websites 24 hrs per day. They would need a system for fast transmission of warnings to Manang and to a few places higher up - Thorung Phedi, Thorung High Camp, maybe also Khangsar for the Tilicho Lake trail. In those places somebody (lodge owner or TAAN staff present on the spot) would have the task to put a big yellow or red sign on the trail, saying "Warning: bad weather forecast for [exact time]" or "Warning: extreme weather forecast for tomorrow. Trail closed."
Correct me if I am wrong but I think that such system would greatly reduce the risk of trekkers being caught in extreme weather like this week.

rdccomments & mitzimeow, thanks for your feedback re: my query (my post #4 above). I've been very lucky over the years and have never been caught out with much more than 10-20cm of new snow, so it's nice to get some other's perspectives

meczko (re: post #25/27) - I fully agree with you - there are many reasonable ways such a warning system could be put in place, and it would require a tiny fraction of the funds they currently collect for fees/permits. You wouldn't even need a 24-hr system, the bulk of the value would come from an early morning alert - say around 5am, someone checks several reliable weather sources, calls/radios the information to several key villages, and signs are put up for the day.

Although there would be that small cost in setting up and running such a system, in the long run that cost would be easily made up in reduced rescue expenses as well as increased revenue (more trekkers are likely to come if they are more confident that the govt takes trail safety seriously). But as you point out, no one there seems interested in thinking long term. The only real impact this will have is yet another call to ban FITs, even though it sounds like most of those affected were actually guided...

Has anyone heard from Marcus Rossner, late 40's, British, he may well have been in the area at the time of this.

Presuming he's safe, how far would he have to go to get access to Internet?

There is internet access in Jomsom, Chame and Manang, but reports are saying that electricity supplies may be affected. The nearest reliable internet access is in Pokhara, but it may take extra time to reach the city at the present time. The rescue effort is ongoing but it's likely that many of the people who are out of contact will have taken shelter in lodges along the route, and may already be en route to places where they can email or call. I wouldn't read anything into a lack of communication at this stage - phone and internet access is limited in the mountains and many trekking routes were unaffected by the disaster.

Ekantipur is reporting that a group of 60 trekkers in missing in a new snowstorm in Upper Dolpo. Details are here.

Meczko - re an early warning system. This should be easily doable, if the Nepali authorities were not so utterly useless - they only thing they seem to be good at is corruption (and nepotism).

Last Oct, when news of Phailin appeared, Roger Ray pointed out, on this forum, that a similar cyclone in 1995 (I think) had headed up to Nepal from India and killed many trekkers (some crowded lodges were swept away in avalanches). Reading Roger's post, I texted (from the UK) the guide I trek with to warn him. He was initially a bit doubtful about the warning, but a couple of days later the Everest region was hit quite badly (though no one killed) - you were obviously there. My guide and his brother, who was also up there, were OK - we exchanged many text messages, except when they were in a place with no coverage (of which there seem to be quite a few, even in the Everest region main trails - somehting to bear in mind if people need a helicopter rescue).

Anyway if "joe public" can pass on warnings from far away, even a half decent "government" should be able to do so. But the Nepali government (politicians and high grade civil servants), plus good old TAAN (I am being very fecitious) are much more interested in playing petty politics and filling their pockets, and looking after thier relatives and cronies.

Thanks, it looks like he started the circuit on the 6th of 7th, so I guess he would have been close, hopefully he hadn't gotten past Manang

I'm just coming back from the Makalu BC trek, only 2 days of bad weather there, not a real problem.

Even in the middle of lowland Europe the weather service is far from accurate despite state-of-the-art equipment and funding. In the Alps it is even less predictable and can change completely within hours, often enough unforeseen. In the himalayas it will be much more difficult to be accurate. People will be complaining bitterly if they miss their flights due to closure of the trek and then it only rains a little. If you only put up recommendations people will ignore it because they think it won´t be as bad / they think they are tough enough / they have no time to wait / the group is carrying on / the guide must get back for his next group waiting in Pokhara. Best would be to increase communication options around the trek even though it is one nice thing that these are the last places on earth where people aren´t staring at their smartphones 24/7 because they are finally offline. But even with the best equipment and best rescue options readily available in a matter of minutes, the Austrian mountain rescue had to take care of 173 fatalities in 2012, 130 of them while hiking or trekking, not climbing, and Austria is only a small part of the alps (source, in German: http://derstandard.at/1363711401223/Bergretter-2012-im-Dauereinsatz).

Ekantipur is reporting that the death toll has risen to 29, with 100 now missing in Upper Dolpo, but 211 people have not been rescued from the Annupurna region - see here for details.

LP authors on the ground in Nepal are reporting that many groups are now turning back from Manang.

If you are trying to reach friends or relatives, the Annapurna Nepal Avalanche & Blizzard Share Info community (here) has created a spreadsheet of missing and rescued trekkers.

I think, in discussions about predicting and informing trekkers about weather, it's important to distinguish between major weather events and more 'typical' weather. It's certainly true that mountain weather is hard to predict - afternoon precipitation, wind/temp changes, cloud cover appearing out of nowhere. For these more 'typical' weather changes, it's not really reasonable to expect anyone to accurately predict this. And because we know this, we recommend everyone to be prepared to handle these unpredictable 'typical' events - waterproof layer, extra warm layers, water/food, compass/GPS/maps, etc.

However, even in mountain conditions, major events such as multi-day storms, cyclones, etc. are usually known in advance. I can't speak well for the Alps as I've only spent a few weeks there, but I do spend a lot of time in the Sierra Nevadas, in the range of 3,000-4,000m on a regular basis, and pretty much every major storm event I can recall in at least the last 10 years were known at least a day in advance. Yes I've been caught out in unexpected rain/snow, but nothing that would overwhelm my typical trekking gear. And because we know we can usually predict these major events, we don't recommend everyone to be prepared to handle them by packing mountaineering boots/crampons, satellite phones, ice axes/shovels, etc.

The Himalayas are obviously much more extreme, so it's understood that there will still be some major events that would be missed, but wouldn't it be nice to be able to inform trekkers of most of the major weather events as they embark on the highest and most dangerous portion of their trek? Esp. if the information was readily available and just lacking an efficient method to communicate it?

This disaster as a case in point - what surprised me so much about this disaster was that, as early as Sun/Mon, I started reading about how this cyclone was going to dump rain on Nepal - on Facebook no less! It's hard to believe that those in larger cities in Nepal were not aware of the coming storm - and a shame that the trekkers on the trail were not able to receive this information before setting off for the higher altitudes of their trek this week...

Shall we ask joe_LP to move the interesting discussion about how to prevent such incidents to a new thread and keep this one for emergency news? Can you please, Joe? And if you have any information as to why the groups are turning back from Manang, that would be helpful. On the pictures it looks like blue skies and the snow is melting, is the trek still buried or destroyed by avalanche, is is closed for more rescue operations, is more bad weather coming? Thanks Joe!

A good suggestion - I'll get onto this once I've sent some more updates.

More rescued travellers and sadly more bodies of travellers caught in the disaster are being bought down to Kathmandu from Jomsom. TAAN is posting regular updates. A terrible time for Nepal and for travellers everywhere.

You are right that weather forecast is never 100% sure. But in the Alps the weather is actually much more variable and less predictable than in high season in the Nepal Himalaya. Freak storms in Nepal Himalaya in October or November like the one this week are usually caused by cylones that make a landfall in India at least a few days earlier and then move inland. Such events are quite easy to predict, as it takes some time for the cyclone to reach Nepal. In such cases it is very predictable that there will be a period of bad weather in the mountains when the cyclone reaches them. Obviously the exact scale of the trouble cannot be predicted but in such cases it is obvious that there will be snow in the upper parts, much rain in the lower areas and that it will take only a few days, as the weather tends to stabilize very quickly in this part of the year. That makes it quite feasible to issue a warning (or even close the trail) just for 2 days or so covered by the worst forecast, when the cyclone is actually to reach the area.
As to disrupting people's plans etc. - while going on a trek such as the AC it is anyway imperative to have those few days in reserve.

I agree with the suggestion to shift this discussion to a separate thread - sorry for starting it here in the first place.

Hi Meczko - there'll be a lot if dissecting of why this tragedy happened, and what can be done to prevent it happening in the coming days and it's a very valid discussion.

It seems certain that some kind of early warning system needs to be implemented but with reports of dozens more trekkers now missing in Upper Dolpo, the focus now is on finding people and getting them out.

TAAN have been posting updates all morning on rescued trekkers and bodies of those lost in the disaster being transported to hospitals in Pokhara and Kathmandu. You can follow the latest on the TAAN website or Facebook.

UPDATE: TAAN are reporting that the Thorung La is blocked by snow and trekking groups are being asked to stop or turn back at Manang. See here.

about to leave for Nepa to trek - not Anapurna (was there in 2000) - planned on Gokyo, which was reportedly not affected by the snowstorm, however it seems much, much colder and wetter this year - is there a way to assess the weather forecasts? is this a particularly bad year, should we cancel altogether or settle for Langtang, if that too won't be too rainy? We can still cancel, as it is not fun to walk in the rain....

TAAN will be providing details of the 37 people rescued today from the Thorung La shortly. The rescued include 12 Nepalis, 7 Germans, 8 French, 3 Austrian, 3 Indians, 1 Australian, 1 Italian, 1 British and 1 Swiss. See the TAAN live feed.

Currently there are no reports of severe weather in the Solukhumbu region, and no indications that cyclonic weather will affect this area in the coming days. The Nepal meteorological office has general forecasts and I don't see anything there to suggest problems in this area. On any trek at any time of year it always makes sense to seek local advice, but the treks to Gokyo and Base Camp have good infrastructure and on the earlier stages, I think you should be OK if you get advice along the route.

If flights are landing at Lukla, then the weather conditions are clear enough for a line of sight landings, which is a good indication of the general conditions - ask Yeti or one of the other airlines for the current status of flights. You will be able to get reliable information on weather further up the trails in Lukla and Namche Bazaar and it's only when you get beyond Namche that infrastructure is reduced and shelter becomes less frequent.

It's worth noting that the main risk is being caught without shelter, and it is only at the higher stages of the Gokyo or EBC treks that there are long gaps between lodges. On the Gokyo trek, trekkers only leave the treeline north of Dole and Gokyo itself is a large village that is occupied year round.

If you reach Namche and find that there are problems further up the trail, there's plenty to do around the area if you do find you have to wait bad weather affecting the higher stages on the trek (including side treks to Thame, Tengboche, Khumjung and Khunde).

Hope that helps!

Not my normal source of information but pretty informative 'first hand' accounts, pictures and graphics available here

Update

Thanks for posting dscobie.

As night has fallen, it's unlikely that we'll hear much more news before tomorrow, but TAAN may publish a list of names for the 37 people rescued from Thorung La before the end of the day.

I'll keep posting updates as I have them, today and over the weekend, particularly on the status of treks across the Thorung La.

TAAN has published a list of trekkers rescued today from Thorung La. Some details are in Nepali, but many people will be able to confirm that missing trekkers are now safe.

The FCO has updated its travel advice for Nepal here. It has some useful information about weather forecasts and contacting the British embassy in Kathmandu for information. The US embassy has also published information for relatives here.

Not quite sure which areas are affected:

Trekking thru Annapurna circuit restricted after blizzards

Following dozens of death by blizzards, authorities have restricted tourists to trek through some parts of the Annapurna circuit for time being.
According to the Trekking Agents Association of Nepal (TAAN), trekkers now cannot pass through the trekking route above upper Mustang.
The Annapurna Conservation Area Project (ACAP) is regulating the trekking activities in the area.
It has stopped collecting fees and giving approvals to trekkers to go beyond upper Mustang citing security reasons, according to West Regional President of TAAN, Ramchandra Sharma.
"But, the trekkers can go up to upper Mustang," he said, "There is no problem in visiting other places."

http://www.thehimalayantimes.com/fullNews.php?headline=Trekking+thru+Annapurna+circuit+restricted+after+blizzards&NewsID=430817

The latest news I have is that the areas currently affected are:
Annaupurna Circuit - Thorung La closed, trekkers being asked to wait or turn back at Manang
Dhaulagiri - avalanche at Dhaulagiri Base Camp
Upper Dolpo - up to 100 trekkers still unaccounted for

It's unclear if other areas of Mustang are affected - many reports have talked about Mustang, but it seems that this may mean the Thorung La, which is in Mustang district. Trekkers have also been rescued from Narphu and Tilcho Lake in Manang district.

An update from Ekantipur on Annapurna rescues. Death toll has risen to 32 but number rescued from Thuroung La today is now 41.

No news yet on Dolpo/Dolpa trekkers - reports earlier today said that only one of 11 groups trekking Upper Dolpa (the area around Phoksumdo Lake and the Kagmara La) has made contact so far, but the area has limited infrastructure so too early to draw any conclusions from that.

Regarding Dolpo trek, the Chief district officer at Dolpo gave an interview to local TV station and said that they were able to contact with a group and they were fine and traveling without problem. According to him the contact was made with the group who were at high altitudes and they have no problem in movement so, his guess is that the Dolpo area is not that affected by this blizzard. He said that the effort of making contact is being done but since the groups are in very remote area making contact might be difficult. More information might come tomorrow.

Solo trekking, without a guide or companions, is never recommended.

This is nonsense. It's not for LP to judge what is acceptable risk for anyone. Of course it is advisable to have decent gear, knowledge etc. But the word is 'advisable' , people take responsibility for their own actions in the mountains.

Solo trekkers are often particularly careful because they are on their own. More inclined to listen to local advice and more likely to be carrying gear that could save their life in a bad weather situation. Groups of trekkers can be less careful if they have false confidence in the collective abilities of the group. It's questionable whether a group of inexperienced and poorly equipped trekkers are safer than an experienced, well equipped individual.

Hi Sumanb - thanks for the update. Information is coming through in dribs and drabs but hopefully this will turn out to the be the case.

There are lots of articles reporting conflicting accounts from trekkers and officials including in the Guardian
and Telegraph.

So predictable.... Now this tragedy will be used for another round of lobbying for a ban on independent trekking, even though many, if not most, of the victims were trekking with guides.

From the Guardian text:
"Nepal blames ‘cheap tourists’ for falling victim to snowstorm in Himalayas
Officials in Nepal have blamed the high death toll from the disaster in the Himalayas this week on budget tourists who did not hire guides to cross a high mountain pass to save money. ...
In comments likely to anger many, Mohan Krishna Sapkota, spokesman of Tourism Ministry, said those who suffered most were “cheaper tourists” who did not want to hire individual guides.

“If they were with the guide then they would have had a much better idea about the weather,” Sapkota said.
...
The government will also move to restrict individuals trekking “on their own”"

The Nepali responses in the Guardian article is so full of CYA and victim-blaming BS that I'm having a hard time not throwing my mouse at my monitor... What a bunch of morons. I'm tempted to cancel my upcoming trip purely out of spite - although obviously they wouldn't care what one tourist would do, but I personally have a hard time with the idea that my money will end up in the hands of these idiots. Plus, I'm not so interested in finding out first hand what they mean in the short term about "restrict individuals trekking on their own".

Well, we are seeing reports from an apparently experienced hill walker and from one of the Israelis that the victims were not properly equipped. It also seems that some victims left the small tea house at the top of the pass and tried to descend. If this is confirmed then it is fair to say that they contributed to their problems. They could be said to be "cheap" in the sense that they did not equip themselves properly for bad weather.

On the other hand, I believe that at least some of them were with guides. There are also reports of porters in the area. Of course a porter would not be expected to have a guide's skills, of either survival or language, but I have seen many "guides" who had little skill themselves. Either way it is difficult to deal with a situation like this if you do not have the right gear. Does anyone know how often a walking guide inspects a client's gear before they set out?

I have crossed the Thorung La six times in various weathers, although certainly not in a storm as bad as this one. On every occasion I have seen walkers who were obviously ill-equipped for any sort of bad weather. Sometimes that might have been as high as 50% of those I saw. The AC has long been a goal for people of little mountain experience, slim budgets, and poor gear. I once had to stop and give a very cold guy in a thin fleece and no wind proof my down jacket and some chocolate before walking with him down the west side. His "friends" had left him behind. When we caught up with them, they seemed to have no sense of having done anything wrong. On another occasion I came across a group with a woman who was having altitude problems. Their guide and some group members were almost literally pulling her along in their efforts to stick to their schedule. My sirdar and I were on an acclimatisation walk and managed to persuade the group to descend. Such people will always be at risk on a straightforward walk like the AC, guide or no guide.

On the subject of weather. I would be most surprised if at least some of the lodge people were not aware of the forecast. The problem is often one of communication with their trekkers. They assume that the trekkers know or they have no common language. The trekkers do not think to ask. One advantage of a proper guide is that they can find out such things when a trekker might not. I am skeptical about elaborate warning systems. In Western countries which have such systems of coms, signs, and closures there are always people who ignore them. Nepal is a poor and corrupt country and anything too elaborate is unlikely, IMO, to work well. A simple education program for lodge keepers of the need to put up weather forecasts for trekkers would be more practical. A sheet of Nepali to English forecast translations for different conditions would help overcome the language problem.

A simple education program for lodge keepers of the need to put up weather forecasts for trekkers would be more practical.

good idea. a small tax on independent trekkers could pay for that, some basic 'beware' info and shelters, as well as (depending on corruption) being a useful contribution to Nepal's economy.

Why new tax? Funds already being charged for TIMS should be spent on that instead of disappearing in Kathmandu's bureaucracy.

yes fair point there , i was getting carried away ... and from what they are saying -

“We will strictly record their names and ask them to take all the information about the weather, area and adopt safety measures,”

it looks like there will be a 'safety tax' coming anyway. but maybe a $10 extra per trek price wouldn't break too many budgets and could be used for other things as well as a basic mountain safety service.

true, tax is likely lost on bureaucracy but tourists directly paying trekking companies instead which is what the nepali govt are pushing for on the other hand, doesn't seem to get to the right people either.

it looks like a contributory part of this tragedy, as earlier this year in everest is the working conditions of guides and porters, if those could be improved trekking would be safer for all. Myself I'm not sure if either tax or private enterprise is best suited to that purpose.

Well, we are seeing reports from an apparently experienced hill walker and from one of the Israelis that the victims were not properly equipped. It also seems that some victims left the small tea house at the top of the pass and tried to descend. If this is confirmed then it is fair to say that they contributed to their problems. They could be said to be "cheap" in the sense that they did not equip themselves properly for bad weather.

On the other hand, I believe that at least some of them were with guides. There are also reports of porters in the area.

Now you're telling us there, to paraphrase, "the cheap trekkers without guides/porters were ill equipped". You base this in part on the 'Hill walker'; this would be the Brit, Sgt Sheridan, quoted in the Daily Mail.

Here's what he actually said:

Sgt Sheridan added: 'My view is that this incident could have been prevented. I knew the weather forecast before I set off.
'Having spoken to my guide, who wasn't there but obviously has been there, they say that the weight that the porters carry is so great that they leave their own personal safety equipment behind to lighten their load. That to me is an absolute disgusting folly.
'All they are doing is leading people to a certain death, and themselves.
'If someone had taken the responsibility just to stop people going up there, I'm sure the fatalities would have been a lot less. They were herded up that mountain to their death, and something needs to be done to address those facts.'

Prior to that he described:

'I looked around and I saw a Nepalese boy and his face was frozen. There was sheer glass ice hanging on his cheek. I went across to him and I said "Your face is frozen" and he said "I know" and he began to cry and we both began to cry

He tells us the guides were ill equipped, and ill trained. Basically the polar opposite of your reading.

TAAN has released a more detailed list of names and passport numbers for those rescued from the Thorung La on Friday here.

The search effort has now moved to the Sangda La, which links Upper Dolpa/Dolpo and Mustang.

Rescue attempts held back by lack of helicopters and government support, according to Ekantipur - here.

An accurate warning system will be next to impossible. This was a catastrophic event which happened the first time in a decade or two. The rest of the time it will be somewhere in between good and bad, just like there are many reports of people who had some snow on AC and ABC but it was still doable. As long as it seems doable guides and travellers alike will push forward because the next group is already waiting for the guide, flights are booked, visas expire. Even with this tragedy, I read that the cyclone was actually forecast to hit further west and made a last minute turn towards Annapurna. The focus here seems to be on Annapurna circuit which would be easy to upgrade but people use more and more side treks and many deaths have occurred away from the main path, so measures should include all areas. In my eyes the three conclusions to draw from this are 1.) improve communication networks, mobile network coverage in all trekking areas 2.) build emergency shelters with first aid supplies, or new staffed government lodges with oxygen and better supplies that otherwise disappear 3.) a criminal investigation to find out if and why people were forced or pushed to leave the safety of teahouses near Thorong La as some reports indicate. Even the best system is utterly useless if you are kicked out of a safe haven.

The organisers of the Great Himalayan Trail have a page of advice for trekking safety that is pertinent to the current situation. Whatever happens moving forward, a new system for informing trekkers about weather conditions must be a priority.

More trekkers rescued from Kagbeni - news here.

Does anybody know the circumstances on the Larkya La pass , as I am heading to Nepal next week to trek around Manaslu? .

The news is that the pass is blocked. A friend of mine was unable to cross the pass due to snowfall so he returned back. I guess the pass is blocked for now but it might open up in a week or so. I think it was not hit as hard as Lhorang La. Make your inquiries before you head out to Larkya la.

Re some form of warning system - one thing the authorities could easily do is to alert guides and lodge owners in a region that a particularly severe storm may be headed their way. As explained in one of my posts above, in Oct 2013 I, prompted by a post from Roger Ray, alerted the two guides I trek with about the possible approach of cyclone Phailin via some text messages from the UK, which they were able to pick up in the Everest region (though there are black spots with no coverage). The storm struck the Everest region less than 2 days later. A warning such as text messages means that people on the spot can keep an extra careful eye on any cloud build up - no cloud means no snow risk, some things are quite simple. BTW if there is significant cloud build up, then it is almost always safest to take a rest day and stay in a lodge - being caught in the open would be incredibly dangerous, especially if say crossing one of the big glaciers or high passes.

Many Nepalis have mobile phones - even the mothers (who are in their late 50s - early 60s) of both the Nepalis I know use mobiles in their villages - all sorts of people in Nepal have adapted quickly to this technology. So something as simple as this would greatly help in warning people.

The quality of guides does vary enormously, but Nepal is very much a developing country - people must not expect the sort of consistency of standards that you get in the "west".

Also some people seem to have an almost blind faith in "reputable TAAN agencies". When I have raised questions about TAAN on another forum, to try and give a more balanced view IMO, all my "questioning" posts were removed, and not re-instated on appeal, so I wonder what is going on on that forum when people question certain aspects of TAAN and how they operate. More than once I have seen guides, with groups from TAAN agencies, who had little real knowledge of trekking and how to deal with problems - I have cited several specific examples in the past. This is not to say that people should not use agencies or qualified staff, but that they should try to check carefully into the real trekking experience of guides, and not just be re-assured because it is a TAAN agency. Also TAAN have been very manipulative and even downright dishonest in the recent past - one example being the "announcement" in 2012 that solo trekking had been banned, following the murder and disappearance of some female solo trekkers in the Langtang area. There was, and is, no such ban.

I also, and again more than once, have seen trekkers who were very poorly equipped for what they were intending to do. As well as a possible lack of funds, this may be due to them reading posts put up by some people saying they did XYZ trek with no problems at all and asking why people recommend carrying various items of clothing, using experienced guides (if say doing the 3 High Passes trek) and so on - I think such posts, though based on actual experience, can give people a very false sense of security. The classic example for me is crossing say a high pass in the Everest region - in good weather, and with others around, and if people are fit enough and sufficiently acclimatised, it is not that tricky or risky. However if there is say some snow, not severe but just enough to obscure the trail, things will become much more difficult - I have read of several people making basic but quite serious mistakes on the approach route to Khongma La in particular.

Thank you Sumandb, I guess it will be 2 weeks before we would have gotten as far as the pass so hopefully it will have cleared

I'm trying to find out about a friend who is missing, whearabouts unkown. By my reckoning he had either just finished his rest in Manang and was walking between Manang to Yak Kharka, or from Yak Kharka to Thorong Phedi. I know these areas are affected, but most of the deaths have occured on the pass, is this correct?

Are there lots of people still trapped in the areas between Manang and Thorong Pedi?

He started on the 6th or 7th, which would have been 8 or 9 days in to the trek when the storm struck.

The BBC are reporting the death toll has risen to 39 but a group of Belgian trekkers has been rescued from Huk village on Mustang Dolpo border - names are listed on the TAAN site here.

Hi - I've been looking for Marcus on the lists from TAAN but I haven't seen him so far and his status is still unknown on the unofficial list. Lots of people are still being rescued after being stuck at teahouses so I'm hoping this is the case.

Thanks, I've been looking too on those sites, we've worked out he's been trekking with a slovakian guy called Peter Petrovic.

Manang should have reliable communications but in my experience it is unreliable at the best of times
between Manang and Throng Phedi it would be described as erratic and under these circumstances almost certain to be non existent
presumably there would still be lots of people in all the lodges waiting for a chance to go back if not forwards when snow clears and urgent cases have been dealt with
I have just managed to make contact with people in Mustang after they returned to Kathmandu so communications are going to be unreliable for some time yet

New updates from TAAN - an Indian group and an American group rescued from Manaslu.

BBC reporting death toll has risen to 39, but 384 rescued. More people are still stuck at Thorung La but rescuers have communicated with them and are trying to reach them after helicopters were unable to land today.

A comprehensive summary from MyRepublica that brings things up to date for today.

I see it has not taken long for TAAN to start trying to exploit this disaster. See this quote from The Guardian newspaper online (which has very good coverage of Nepal):

"Ramesh Prasad Dhamala, president of TAAN, said today that in future all trekkers would be required to have at least a guide and porter with them.

It is unclear, however, what system might be put in place to ensure guides are trained and tested."

TAAN seems to assume that indy trekkers were more at risk and conveniently ignores the issue of the massive differences in the ability and experience of guides, something which I and others have commented on many, many times. This also ignores reports about some guides herding their clients up, into the snow storm.

Just to be clear, I am not at all against guides, I really like "my" guide and his brother, with whom I have done the last 5 of my 11 treks in Nepal (my first 6 treks were basically with other indy westerners or solo). My next trek, due to be the 3 High Passes this Dec - Jan, will be with one or other "my" guides.

TAAN is the lobbying Association of Trekking Agencies, and they had this money-making plan for a long time now. This time there is a real danger that the government says we have to do something so we´ll do that. I haven´t seen a complete list of fatalities, but if you don´t count the yak herders and the avalanche fatalities from Dhaulaghiri, how many of the remainder are indy trekkers? And if it´s true that most AC fatalities were in the group that was reportedly forced out of a safe shelter, the blame is on the Nepalis, not the trekkers. Even after such a catastrophe I see no reason to have a guide forced upon me. Trekkers are much more likely to continue in bad weather if otherwise they have to pay a guide and a porter for sitting around. If this rule comes into effect I´ll fly right out, bye bye Nepal.

As I already have said in another thread, I would like to remember to all this criticizing people that every given year, on the Alps, some well trained, expert guides die with or without some of their customers.
Please, stop barking against Nepali people.

Marco colombo from Italy

Hello All,
Could anyone advice me on weather conditions in Upper Mustang area and how this cyclone might impact trekking conditions in November . I was going to start a 10 day trek on the 30th October. Today my trek mates have cancelled. Now I have to make a choice to keep going ahead with my trek with significantly higher costs and with weather conditions I am not able to interpret at all. Reading this topic made me painfully aware how little I know about the area where I am planning to go and how little I understand the potential risks. I would be very glad for any advice that would help me to make an informed decision about my planned trip. Thank you Eva

if I were you I would continue with all plans as they are
weather conditions will be back to normal by then presumably
keep an eye on reports mentioning Jomsom if you are using the airport
and Kagbeni which you will pass through and was affected
you will have a guide if you are going to the restricted area so make certain he is experienced and checks the weather forecast
contact your agency for any updates of changes from the Government

An update from Ekantipur. Total number rescued yesterday up to 57. More are still unaccounted for though, including in Upper Dolpa.

Is there another site that lists out the rescued, I noticed on taan there were a lot rescued yesterday, but they only provided the names of a handful.

Hi - there's an unofficial list here run by people from the Annapurna Nepal Blizzard & Avalanche Info share group (see here).

Latest news is a rescue underway at Narphu - see here.

More sad news - bodies recovered from Sangda La, Narphu and Manang. TAAN has the latest.

BBC reporting no more stranded, but Nepali news sources saying seven more rescued from Tukuche Base Camp and trekkers making their own way down on foot from High Camp at Thorung La.

Sounds pretty chaotic still, there are loads of people still unnacounted for, not sure why they are saying no more stranded.

I agree there is a long way to go yet before everyone is accounted for, and some of the missing may just not have made contact yet. Things are chaotic, but it's incredibly difficult to find people scattered across the mountains and the rescue teams are doing what they can with the resources they have.

On this topic, plenty of foreign governments are in a position to help, but I haven't heard about any nations volunteering resources, even when their own citizens are affected. Many of the helicopters that used to provide support in the Himalayan region are now operating contracts in Afghanistan, and with political will, these could be assisting the search and rescue effort.

I think it's important to say that lots of people don't make contact with home while trekking or indeed while travelling. Hopefully, we will have a clearer picture once the army, government and TAAN compile a single list of missing and rescued.

TAAN has an update on the numbers rescued and thought to be missing.

Not sure if this is new, I know earlier in the thread Joe mentioned that they were turning people back at Manang, but reports now saying that they've closed new sections because people have been attempting to get through: http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/nepal-closes-popular-trekking-route-after-38-die-in-snowstorms-1.2060593#

This post has been removed because it may not have met our community guidelines.

An interesting editorial from Ekantipur analysing the background to the disaster.

News on the disaster has slowed to a trickle today. TAAN are reporting that bodies are being airlifted to hospitals in Kathmandu, but other news sources are contradicting claims that all trekkers have been rescued. It may be several days before we know the full extent of the disaster. A very distressing time for all those involved in this tragedy.

Reports that an Israeli millionaire sent his private plane to pick up Israeli survivors on Sunday, so some people are taking the initiative to help.

An update from Reuters reporting that small avalanches are impeding the search.

I've seen search dogs have been offered repeatedly very close to the annapurnas and they haven't used them. Sounds a bit of a mess.

re #100

The editorial does make a couple of good observations, although I think culpability is a touchy matter at this point. Why? The situation - mountain trekking - is inherently a judgement call.

My first reaction to the news was that mountain weather is inherently unpredictable and very changeable. Conditions from valley to valley can be very different, and situations can change drastically within hours. I can understand how clear skies can fool relative novices to mountain weather, and make weather warnings appear over-exaggerated. However, even experienced people, guides included, get caught out every year among the mountains on every continent.

The article mentions that weather warnings had been issued a week in advance. Problem is that, except for closing down an area entirely, the final decisions are left to the people out there, and the decisions are about an inherently risky activity - high altitude mountain trekking. It a judgement call, weighing the pros and cons of alternatives. It's always like this. Maybe insurance companies and lawyers worry about culpability (sooner or later this may be a practical issue) but for the actual trekkers this is an almost daily issue about making decisions and calculating risks. I can understand as well that when someone has invested time, resources, and is motivated, then there's more chance of taking the more risky option. Again, this is an almost daily process with mountain trekking. That part will never change.

The bad luck this time is that the worst case situation is the one that developed, and the line of 'too much risk' was shifted to a more conservative direction, making even a decision to hunker down in a lodge the wise choice. But this is all after-the-fact.

I read today a different tragedy of mountain risks: an Austrian husband and wife, in Austria, with young son and baby carried by father in a shoulder seat. The young son slips, the father tries to grab him but the father slips as well. They all fall, father and baby die, son in critical condition, mother in shock. It is painful for me to read, but is a story of what can happen in the mountains.

When I read articles like the one in Ekantipur I can't help wondering who are the people that write it. They are very judgemental, but do they have any experience from mountain trekking and conditions in the mountains in general?
Can anyone really predict weather change in the mountains with a week notice? And especially, can anyone predict a totally freak weather in peak season when normally the skies are blue and there's no rain? Can you divert 400 trekkers and send them back to Kathmandu because the weather report isn't favourable and completely against the seasonal pattern?

Even reading accuweather.com predictions can be confusing when in one place it states:

The system is expected to weaken as it move over land and is cut off from the warm waters of the Bay of Bengal.

and then follows with a different note:

The core of the heaviest rain into the middle of the new week, however, will likely sweep to the northeast toward the India-Nepal border.

The report was issued on Oct 12, only two days before the disaster was a fact.

A new government statement on the disaster via TAAN.

yes, hard to predict mountain weather. Exactly when and where a storm might hit might be impossible to forecast, or only possible to forecast a few hours in advance. Some reports say that trekkers and support staff left for the pass in good weather and from visual weather conditions/usual weather for October, it was reasonable to expect no problems.

This was an horrific, freak accident but in hindsight it seems there are 4 possible ways to reduce casualties.

1. It is possible to give basic weather warnings/advice in advance; e.g. 'bad weather is expected between x date and y date'. As suggested by other posters this info could be displayed in tea houses, lodges etc and a long range weather forecast given out with trekking permits. This would help foreign trekkers to be aware of problems that might arise on their route and to take precautions. It's not reasonable to close down trekking routes for long periods on the chance of bad weather, neither trekkers on tight schedules nor the tourist industry money would accept that. Going to the mountains is your own risk and responsibility but better basic information could help influence your choice to do so.

2. A stronger, general 'Conditions are changeable in the mountains - be prepared for changes and delays while trekking' message could change peoples' expectations and help alleviate the 'must keep to schedule' issue.

3. Provide shelters on/near high passes on the very popular routes.

4. Improve working conditions for Nepali support staff. Many support staff have died in this accident and it's probable that pressures to keep to schedule and/or poor equipment contributed to these deaths. Elite support staff like the Sherpas at Everest seem to have made gains from their protests after the tragedy there this spring. This is the hardest thing to change. I suggest that any foreigner employing support staff, either directly or through a trekking agency, has some responsibility to ensure staff are reasonably equipped, but I appreciate that for most foreign trekkers in Nepal (including myself) this is difficult to determine and influence.

Mountain weather is notoriously unpredictable but in this case it was apparently quite obvious that trouble was brewing even if the ferocity of the snowstorm was unexpected and exceptional. Bay of Bengal cyclones moving inland and hitting the Himalaya in Nepal with rain and snow are a recurring phenomenon that happens almost every year and it always takes a few days before the cyclone reaches Nepal.
In case of a cyclone moving inland maybe it would be a good idea to issue a warning and close the highest section of the trail just for the day or two when the clouds are likely to reach the mountains. If the risk turns out to be exaggerated, trail can be reopened the next day, so delays would be minimal. A few spare days should be included in every trekker's schedule for emergencies.

Finally, even 2 days advance would be enough to contact Thorung Phedi lodge (even by sending somebody from Manang) with a warning and instruction to put a sign closing the trail.

A portion of the statement reads:

"we have been hearing unauthentic voices that the Government of Nepal has stopped issuing permit to the trekkers to go Annapurna area, which is not true. All the destinations and trekking are opened and permits have been issuing."

I don't quite understand what this means. I get that they are saying that you can still buy permits and you can travel to the Annapurna area, but does the last bit about "all the destinations and trekking are opened" mean that, officially, the AC trail above Manang is not currently closed? Is that segment re-opened now?

I get that weather is hard to predict, and that trekkers, as a rule, tend to do their own thing. But I think trekkers tend to be more cavalier in the absence of information. When all they can see is that the skys are clear and there are only rumors of snow coming, they are more apt to decide that they can get over the pass and they can manage the risk. Inexperienced trekkers are also more likely to follow the lead of either their guide or a more experienced trekker in the absence of information as well, compounding the potential problem.

However, if you can provide more authoritative information on major storm events, I think you would see a big majority of trekkers do the right thing. I doubt that many of the trekkers would have set off for the pass (or up to Tilicho) if they knew that a category 4 cyclone was heading their way, forecast to potentially drop meters of snow. Certainly some would have ignored the information, but most would have stayed put for the day or two necessary to wait out the snow. The most vulnerable (those that came least prepared), are also more likely to be risk adverse and exercise caution in the presence of a dire weather forecast. That may have been the difference between 40 dead and 5 dead in this case.

Ultimately, I think certain events warrant not just warnings but actual closures. Yes, you can and must divert hundreds of trekkers if the conditions warrant it. Think about the Lukla airport. What if we all said that weather is too hard to predict, and it's unreasonable to prevent the hundreds of trekkers each day that want to fly into Lukla from doing so, so flights should continue regardless of weather? That airport closes for a week or more at least once each season, and I've never heard an argument that it's unreasonable because you can't accurately predict the weather. I hate the idea of a nanny state as much as anyone, but when it's potentially life or death, a little intervention makes sense.

Finally, weather forecasts can be confusing, but someone with even just a little experience can interpret it easily enough. The example you posted is very clear: Cyclones definitely weaken once over land (so don't expect the 200+ km/h winds observed in the open seas in Nepal), and expect the most rain mid-week up into Nepal (exactly as it happened). Someone can quickly distill the most relevant portions (expect 1-3 meters of snow above 4000m W-Th this week) with minimal effort to eliminate any confusion the actual forecast might create.

mountain journalist asks for closures etc:

The answer is simple. A checkpoint on either side of the Thorung La pass could turn back trekkers and porters without a prescribed minimum of clothing. Weather forecasts could be transmitted to these posts, with a clear authority to close the route when necessary. And a refuge hut at the summit of the pass could shelter those caught in bad weather. Western tourism is crucial to Nepal's economy. Money can, and must, be found.

from Independent - nepal-trekking-better-safety-measures-could-save-lives

Closing a pass sounds a good way to protect support staff from the demands of their bosses/clients and stop poorly equipped trekkers continuing but it's against 'freedom to wander at your own risk and responsibility' and might set a precedent for over concerned authorities to close off mountains around the world . If responsibility for an accident can be blamed on the authorities it's probable they will be over protective.

I don't know other countries where this is done? Airports and roads are 'civil-technical' structures so closing them in bad weather is govt responsibility but policing passage to the mountains to people on foot is a different principle .

but noted here that given the opportunity (some) tourists may not be so wise in exercising their 'freedom to wander' , or indeed just lack basic respect :

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/himalayas-avalanches-trekkers-are-harming-rescue-efforts-by-walking-danger-trail-9804934.html

Re the posts about lessons from the disaster.

Warnings: I think that general warnings can be issued, especially in cases such as Hudhud and Phailin, which struck the Everest region last year, in October, without the need for massive investment. As Meczko says, both cyclones were tracked before they made landfall in India, and then tracked as they headed north. Whilst it is no doubt impossible to be very accurate in predicting the path of a cyclone 2-3 days ahead, people in areas that may be affected should be alerted - lots of Nepalis have mobile phones. They can then keep an even closer eye on changes in the direction and strength of the wind and cloud build up - the latter will almost certainly mean snow high up in the Himalayas. As I have posted twice above, prompted by a post from Roger Ray, last Oct I was able to warn the two guides I trek with, via text messages from the UK, about the possible approach of Phailin - they were both up in the Everest region when it struck. As Mecczko says, given the balance of risks, losing a day or two, even if it turns out to be unnecessary, should be possible within any itinerary. If it is not possible, then the itinerary is too tight, as probably is the price of the trek. I often advise people not to compare treks offered by agencies mainly on price.

If there is heavy snow, or it looks like there will be, it is almost always safest to stay put in a lodge. I spent 5 nights at Manang in Oct 2005 when 1 metre of "unseasonal" snow in about 24 hours closed AC for 3-4 days, I stopped for 2 nights at Tagnag (rather than 1) from 31 Dec 2010 due to heavy snow (to have attempted to cross the Ngozumpa in those conditions would have been suicidal), 3 nights (or was it 2) at Khangsar in Dec 2012 due to snow. I have walked up to the top of Renjo La in quite heavy snow in late May 2008, but it was not thick on the ground that time, and I have walked from Khangsar to Yak Kharka in Dec 2012 in the snow (after those 2-3 days, we had no more snow for the rest of Dec), but again the snow was not heavy or particularly thick on the ground. Most of the snow I have experienced has only fallen for 2 days - the other 3 nights at Manang were wating for the trail to become reasonably walkable.

I now wonder whether the practice of setting off very early, ie before sunrise, when crossing a high pass, in this case Throung La, was a factor. From some of the reports I have read, some people were saying that when they set off in the dark it was snowing, but not that heavily at that point. However as it was dark, there would be no way of assessing the density or darkness of the clouds. By the time it started to get light, presumably quite a few of the groups would have been a long way from Thorung Phedi, and very much out in the open. I have always been very sceptical about getting up early to cross a high pass, but for reasons of the cold and the dark - I have often asked what is the pouint of trekking in such conditions, and if people need so long to cross a high pass, then either they are not fit enough and/or are not properly acclimatised. It also means that they are probably on or near to their limits physically - this is obviously never wise when high up in the Himalayas. For all the various times I have crossed high passes, I have never set off before about 7.30am and sometimes quite a bit later.

I strongly disagree about Oct having the best weather for trekking (blue skies and no rain?). As above Oct 2005 I had heavy snow on AC, Oct 2013 the Everest region had Phailin, my guides have several times been stuck at Lukla in Oct due to bad weather. From reading a report the other day in The Guardian (which generally has very good coverage of things in Nepal), climbers and trekkers were talking about heavy dumps of snow in Oct in certain years back in the 1980s and 1990s. It would be helpful to gte some hard info - I know only what I have experienced or read about since 2005. As my post 5 above, I think these claims may encourage people not to carry all the correct kit (there were numerous reports of some people caught out by Hudhud being not having thermal clothing), not to pay attention to the weather, and to carry on if in doubt, ie to assume that any snow fall will be limited because "it is October"... As above I am not saying do not trek in Oct, just be prepared.

I thought the Ekantipur article was a good one, especially taking into account how useless the Nepali government is and how dishonest and grasping TAAN is. BTW I (again) must make it clear that I write this as someone who likes Nepal and Nepalis, and will be going back to Nepal for my 7th visit this Dec - Jan (to hopefully do the 3 High Passes trek for my 3rd time).

Searches underway again at Thorung La led by survivor of blizzard according to TAAN.

I agree with rdcomments in #114. There is a big problem with people wanting the cheapest price and not realising that this often leads to rushed itineraries, guides who do not take the weather properly into consideration, and porter neglect.

I have no idea if any of this applies to the poor people caught in the recent problems but the issue of the cheapest price has been with us for many years and I have seen the results of it far too many times. As a rule of thumb, my friends and I pay 10% above minimum rates to ensure that our porters are properly equipped. We have also supported porters' organisations for some time.

IMO, if you cannot pay a price that enables people, including yourself, to be protected, then you should not be trekking. Putting people at risk through your own lack of funds is, IMO, not morally defensible.

News has slowed to a trickle today, but there are still no signs so far of a single official list of missing and rescued, and the authorities are still giving conflicting messages about which sections of the Annapurna Circuit are closed, if any. I'll keep looking to see if I can find authoritative answers.

The unofficial list of missing and rescued trekkers created by friends and relatives has now been posted here.

I think that joe_LP is doing a pretty good job here.

While this tragic disaster has been a devastating event, it's worth noting that the storms were localised to the area around the Annapurna massif. The blizzards and avalanches were tightly focused on the upper stages of the Annapurna Circuit trek, and valleys to the north and west, and other parts of the country were unaffected. Throughout the crisis, thousands of people have been trekking without problems in Solu Khumbu and other parts of Nepal, and it's worth saying that trekking in Nepal is not significantly more dangerous than trekking at altitude anywhere else in the world. In 2012, nine trekkers were killed by an avalanche at Chamonix on Mont Blanc, and more than ten climbers and trekkers have died in the area around Mont Blanc this year. What happened in Annapurna is a horrifying reminder of how dangerous the mountains can be, and hopefully some good can come from this in terms of changes that will make trekkers safer in future, but what I would like to see come out of this is more awareness that trekking at altitude has risks and more understanding of how to minimise those risks, rather than a knee-jerk reaction that trekking is dangerous and Nepal is a dangerous place.

I agree with rdcomments in #114. There is a big problem with people wanting the cheapest price and not realising that this often leads to rushed itineraries, guides who do not take the weather properly into consideration, and porter neglect.

Mitzimeow,
That's what you can say when you're an experienced trekker and a mountaineer, as you say in your profile. You know the requirements and it all comes from your experience. However, we've got to understand that the great majority of trekkers in Nepal don't have that experience, they don't know what they should ask and expect from a good trek operator and the guides. They come to Nepal and want to do one of the popular treks, usually EBC or Annapurna. Most of them have never been above 3000m, never walked in snow or been caught in a blizzard.
There's no guarantee that those people would get a better service if they pay a higher price.

The problem should be addressed in a different way, and it requires a different approach than the present practice. Trekking is a big market in Napal, that over the years has grown to an industry and become one of major sources of income for Nepalese people. Despite that, there seem to be no sufficient regualtions as to basic rules and requirements for trekking companies in order to secure higher level of safety. As it us today, to be a trekking guide the only thing that's needed is fairly good skills in English to be able to communicate with clients. As soon as a young guy who's been a porter has improved his English, he can be sent with a group of people to guide them in the mountains. There's no education needed, no proper training and skills required for emergencies. That's a task for the Nepali authorities to deal with, not the trekkers who are willing to pay 10% more.
I mentioned that already in the other thread with an ironically matching title, "Cheap tourists' fault?".

agreed -

There's no guarantee that those people would get a better service if they pay a higher price

and also that it's difficult for people going trekking for the first time (or not knowing an area etc) to know what experience, training and equipment support staff need, or what staff are available.

but effective change in the Nepali trekking industry is likely to be more market than govt led (a reality for the tourist trade in many countries). so there is a practical need for trekkers to be more aware, and responsible for ensuring the safety of their support staff, as well as an ethical need to ensure people you pay to help you enjoy your holiday are safe. maybe that's a case of education, e.g. repeated messages in guide books and forums on safety for trekkers and staff.

There could also be a market advantage for trekking companies advertising improved staff and trekker safety, especially now that the possibilities of accident have been so tragically highlighted.

Guardian reporting new rules for trekkers, including requirement to take a local guide and carry a GPS.

good to see improved weather forecasting/warnings but the rest is not good news -

required to take trained local guides and would have to rent a GPS tracking unit to help authorities trace them in case of an emergency.

The govt want to set up a GPS hire business? lucrative for them i'm sure but how many GPS units will be needed? how much is a GPS tracking unit going to help if weather conditions are bad and resources for search are limited? Will a GPS not give some people false confidence? the main issue is better clothing and mountain knowledge not the ability to be found once an accident has happened. Will guides and support staff also carry GPS? Many of the people who died on AC were Nepalis, how does this help them? Sure extra income for guides is good but if a trekker has to take a guide this could just continue the race to the bottom for staff rates and make it less likely that trekkers will insist on safety and training/experience.

is this the end of indy trekking in Nepal?

That news stinks. Porters and guides are often the least prepared of all. Porters are often recruited by couples who expect him to carry for both of them. So really to be adequately prepared he has to carry for 3! One trekker one kit doesn't create overloaded individuals on the trail.

Who's noticed a common cliche in these forums about how little the locals wear on the pass compared to western trekkers? Said flatteringly, a sign of greater toughness, us westerners need our goretex they don't.

This will end up like Everest climbing. Budget climbers join a group which exists mostly as a paper construct, then do their own thing. Puts money in the pockets of bureaucrats.

That's a move in wrong direction.
I don't think a guide should be mandatory, especially a guide without required skills and licence. That should be an option.
But, if someone wants to hire a guide, it would have to be sure that the guide is trained, has proper skills, and is not merely a pathfinder.
Even if the great majority caught in the snowstorm were foreign trekkers, half of the people that perished were Nepalese guides and porters, who became helpless victims.

Another well thought out knee jerk reaction by the Nepalise authorities

I think that joe_LP is doing a pretty good job here.

I totally agree!

More bodies of guides found at Thorung La according to some reports in Himalayan Times, which also carries an interesting editorial about the measures announced since the disaster.

The whole GPS thing is a red herring - it's designed to make it sound like they're taking this seriously and implementing technology. The reality is that GPS is one way only - it can tell you where you are, but it can't broadcast where you are to anyone. The only way to track someone with GPS is with another communication layer, such as cellular or satellite. I don't think they will seriously be able to budget satellite-enabled devices, and cell towers will get knocked offline just when you need it. (although I guess the fact that it's not actually usable doesn't mean they won't try to implement it). Plus even TAAN are likely to fight this GPS requirement. What, something that requires their agencies to spend money? Unlikely.

Realistically, I doubt the GPS requirement will go anywhere. The mandatory guides/porters, however...hopefully they will come to their senses but who knows.

I think it's time to make an appointment with the minister of tourism Deepak Chandra Amatya and discuss the pros and cons of indy trekking. Half of those killed were Nepali support staff, how does that fit in for them? How many victims were really indy trekkers at all? I even read that the groups continued while indy trekkers sat it out in the lodges.
I'm near Kathmandu, anyone wants to join?

A mandatory guide would be an obstacle that may prevent my return to Nepal to trek. I did the AC last year with a porter/guide, crossing Thorong La exactly one year previous to this year's storm. I hired him for my convenience and comfort, not my safety. I considered my safety to be my own responsibility and I was ready to help HIM if he got in trouble as well.
I trust the Nepali people to be honest, gracious and friendly. I will ride in the jeep or bus with full knowledge that I do so at my own risk, but I will not trust their government to assure me that the"guide" they require will know more about how I should mind my safety than I do.
The "altitude talk" at Manang has probably saved a number of lives by helping some people understand how not to die at altitude and, for some, helping them to feel OK about feeling a bit off and continuing on up without undue fear.
Information provided to all trekkers regarding potential weather problems and the need to be prepared may be useful, but only if it dispels the illusion that just because you are allowed to walk to a place that it is therefore"safe".

I'm sure many of us FIT trekkers here are in the same boat re: not wanting to return to Nepal if a guide is mandatory. I am not on the fence about it either, I'm absolutely not returning if I have to trek with a guide. Heck, I'm leaving this week and was ready to give up my non-refundable ticket and cancel my trip if they were planning on implementing this now (I'm crossing my fingers that they do actually wait until the spring to put in any new rules). Even if I had already flown to Nepal, I would avoid trekking if it required a guide - I'd simply fly to Thailand/Indonesia/Philippines for the duration of my trip before flying back home.

In the end, though, I doubt the Nepali govt cares if some independent trekkers avoid Nepal. They've talked themselves into thinking that FIT trekkers are all 'cheapskates' anyways, and that the bulk of the tourism revenue only comes from organized trekking groups.

If this goes into effect (and we know there's a good chance that this is just posturing - something to deflect the criticism until the discussions die down), we'll know whether the independent trekkers that avoid Nepal make a net positive or sizable net negative impact to tourism revenue. If the former, good for Nepal - in the end it's their country and if they don't want FIT trekkers, it's unfortunately their call. If the latter, then expect to see the rules repealed in a hurry.

As much as I'm aggravated about it now, I fully expect that, in a few years time, nothing will have materially changed.

They've talked themselves into thinking that FIT trekkers are all 'cheapskates' anyways, and that the bulk of the tourism revenue only comes from organized trekking groups.

For the Nepali govt and associated bigger tourist businesses the bulk of their trekking revenue will come from organised trekking groups. For Nepal as a whole indy trekker business likely makes up a reasonable portion of tourist income but for the Nepalis making big money from trekking the indy trekkers are a nuisance cluttering up the trails and reminding their big paying clients that it's possible to walk without a legion of support staff. They never did like the hippies hanging out

The richer Nepalis don't benefit that much from indy trekkers and the richer Nepalis have the say. They want to make Nepal more exclusive, stitch up the business and are happy with more money per tourist from fewer tourists and a direct line on the nepotism and baksheesh. They have restricted access to the mountains for a long time and this sounds like more of the same.

A similar process is happening/has happened in African parks and trekking areas as fees and 'support requirements' (reasonable sometimes but not always) increasingly ensure safari or hiking are exclusive experiences for tourists with big bucks wanting a guide.

I hope they do forget about the guides rule once the fuss had died down but i worry that the Nepali elite know they are sitting on a rich seam of tourist revenue and will take any opportunity to keep that revenue to themselves.

anyways, it's ok, India is next door ..

If I was in KTM I would join you, travelbert, though I am doubtful you'll get in....good luck.

Been lurking rather than getting involved for the past couple of years...anyway, I am also in Nepal and have just got my TIMS and ACAP permit as a FIT from the NTB offices. People at both counters indicated there should be no problem in the near future at least. I fall in both camps, doing a guided group trek around Manaslu before completing the AC and ABC on my own.

From my observation in the past, many trekkers I've seen are doing their first trek and with minimal gear but the high altitude part is quite short and people probably dont realise there is an ever present mountain danger. For the rest of the time the AC is quite literally a walk in the park.

I walk alone usually, not to save money but because I value the peace and quiet while walking. Will I stop trekking in Nepal if guides are compulsory...probably not but I may take the opportunity to go to the restricted areas.

There are many people still unaccounted for on the unofficial list being maintained by the Annapurna Blizzard Avalanche Info Share group. If you have any news on anyone on the list, please can you contact the group. There are a lot of anxious friends and relatives and the official channels are not providing much information.

More on government plans for training guides and early warning systems from MyRepublica.

fieldgate #121:

You make some fair points but I think that you are conflating knowledge with experience. You do not have to spend forty two years wandering about Nepal to gain knowledge, as opposed to experience. There is a wealth of information available on the web and in guidebooks in all the major languages. On the whole the standard of information provided is good and is the result of hundreds of years of experience. LP do a good one. Most of them cover the need for proper porter treatment, good equipment, and caution in bad weather.

My view is that if you do not acquire the knowledge, then you should not be trekking, even on the easier walks like the AC. You are neglecting your responsibility at the potential cost of others. Some of the problem certainly lies with the Nepalese authorities but trekkers need to accept their part of the problem.

Hi All,

Need guide on Annapurna National Park. Could any one please help me finding it.

Post 139 - there is a lot of info and advice around, and I agree about people conflating experience and knowledge.

One thing I have noticed more often in the past year or so, especially on another forum, is the number of people who seem to do little or no proper reading/research before they go off trekking high up in the Himalayas - they just think that a few brief questions on a forum will provide them with all the knowledge they need. More than once I have even thought some were spoof questions, such was their idiocy. Possibly this was a factor in the recent disaster, including people not having the proper gear.

Post 141 -- I have noticed the same thing about lack of any forethought, and it is remarkable considering that one can buy a PDF of the relevant chapter in Lonely Planet's Nepal trekking book for US$4.95 -- about the same as a candy bar at Gorak Shep, and probably a lot better for you (even if you were to print it out and eat it).

There is a lot to be said about what the authorities did and what they failed to do in this disaster but I think it's also worth saying that in a mountain environment it makes sense to be as prepared as possible for any eventuality. As an individual you can do a lot to keep yourself safe. At the minimum I would say that means carrying a means of navigation, be that a GPS or a map and compass, carrying all-weather clothing that would protect you in severe weather, and carrying some emergency food and water. If you can also manage a tent and four season sleeping bag then you can survive no matter how severe the weather turns. It's always tempting to travel light when you're carrying everything yourself but that can leave you poorly prepared if you get into trouble. Nine times out of ten, you won't need all the gear, but you only have to need it once in a lifetime for it to be worth carrying. Mountaineers and people who live in the mountains sit out blizzards all the time and having shelter and a means of keeping warm can literally be the difference between life and death in this environment.

joe_LP #143:

I generally agree with this. A GPS is fine but a map and compass is the minimum. Layers are essential, as is a supply of emergency food such as chocolate. I would not usually carry a tent when trekking on lodge treks but always carry a bivy bag. Mine is a fairly expensive climbing version but a simple large plastic bag to get inside is good enough. An insulating layer to sit on, usually your rucksack, is also essential. A light to indicate position completes the absolute necessaries.

News from official channels is mainly about government plans for new regulations for trekkers but there are people still unaccounted for. The unofficial list of trekkers known to be in the area is here - if you have any news on any of these missing persons please contact the organisers.

i always carry a big cheap (5 euro/dollar) strong plastic 'survival' bag; good to get inside if the weather turns and also multifunctional outdoors - store dry gear, sleep on a muddy floor, windshelter etc etc . will float a rucksack across a river if it doesnt have too many holes but i wouldn't recommend rafting the Sun Kosi on one .. and makes a good small gift for people in the mountains (or anywhere people need big plastic bags and that's a lot of places ...)

http://www.gooutdoors.co.uk/survival-bag-p152245

or look in the local market for sthg similar (though that may be branded as a 'fertiliser' bag)

It's always tempting to travel light when you're carrying everything yourself but that can leave you poorly prepared if you get into trouble. Nine times out of ten, you won't need all the gear, but you only have to need it once in a lifetime for it to be worth carrying.

You can travel light and rent whatever you need. My backpack never exceeds 10 kg, which makes it much easier on planes and busses, and even on treks. I never missed anything during my trips. I rented sleeping bag, when needed, even crampons and harness, and slept in tents that where provided by trek operators.

Knowledge and experience. Either or both.
I've met all sorts of people on treks, totally clueless and very knowledgable, even if newbies.
There are famous treks that attract all kinds, like Annapurna, EBC in Nepal or Inka trail in Peru.
When you go on treks that aren't widely popular, you meet a different set of people. They know where they are and why. While in Nepal or Cuzco Peru it's a mainstream traveller. They could be knowledgeble and experienced, or totally ignorant, on a tight and rushed schedule, or in search for a "life changing experience".
Nepal, Kathmandu are tourist slogans. No matter how challenging the mountains are, they attract all kinds of people, from serious climbers to bored with their life gap year travellers. Try to propose Cordillera Blanca or Karakorum instead, and they'll rise their eyebrows.

The notion of carrying a "survival bag" is what separates those of us who (probably) would have lived through this from those who simply did not understand that they had to be responsible for their own safety. Not the bag, but the awareness of the need to be prepared for a very bad experience so one could be miserable but alive, probably....

If a reasonable yet inexperienced person is led to believe that he or she can rely on a guide or someone else to ensure their safety, they simply don't understand that there are unavoidable risks in a trek such as this. I have seen people on trails who literally assumed that since other people were there, that it must be "safe". This naive attitude is, in my opinion, the danger that can be addressed with some good affect...I again mention the altitude talk at Manang that I believe is immeasurably useful to people who simply have no experience with the effects of altitude and who are provided simple straightforward guidance on how to take care of their own safety. Those who attend the talk assume the risk of ascending into a situation where a proper awareness prepares them to responsibly trek on, and even be aware of how to help someone who might need it....

The Himalayan Times is reporting that Thorung La is now reopened - although it doesn't seem like it's official, the article states that people are getting through and the various quoted parties (Mustang Chief District Officer, ACAP tourism officer, TAAN Pokhara first Vice-chairman) aren't necessarily saying it's officially open, but don't seem to have a problem with trekkers passing through):

http://www.thehimalayantimes.com/fullNews.php?headline=Trekking+in+Thorong+La+Pass+resumes&NewsID=431389

Anyone on the ground able to confirm that the pass is re-opened?

As mentioned by Skyline1 (thank you for the pointer) the Himalayan Times is reporting that trekkers are once again using the Thorung La, though whether the pass is 'officially open' seems to be as vague as whether the pass was 'officially closed'.

Whether official or not, the weather seems fairly settled (you can check the latest on the Meteorological Forecasting Division website) and there are no cyclonic storms in the area, so the crossing is likely to be safe enough, though it still makes sense to check all is OK before leaving Manang and again before leaving Thorong Phedi, and to make sure you are properly equipped for the crossing.

does that mean all the missing Australians have been located as I haven't heard any reports
or have they given up looking because they will be in a pub somewhere

Its more like the need when it comes to going to a new region things are necessary to be there and at the same time when it comes to going for the correct thing all has an impact that stays well and surely its a lot of help.

MyRepublica is reporting that trekkers are starting to come back from Dhaulagiri following the avalanche that trapped a Slovakian group at base camp on 14 October.

This pattern is likely to continue, with groups that were in affected areas but not directly caught in the disaster making their way back to the trailheads or to Pokhara or Kathmandu. Hopefully many of the people reported as missing will turn up in the coming days.

Media coverage has pretty much dried up on the events in Nepal, but I'll keep posting if anything more news comes in.

A good thought piece on the porters affected by the Nepal snowstorms here.

Here is an interview with a porter which gives an insight into their difficulties:

http://www.ekantipur.com/the-kathmandu-post/2014/10/17/onsaturday/miles-to-go-before-i-sleep/268646.html

Not directly relevant to this tragedy but it refers to the Gokyo avalanche in 95.

Thanks for keeping us informed Joe, excellent work.

Here is a harrowing set of satellite pictures showing the storm passing over Annapurna. Seeing the total white-out, it is amazing that so many people made it through OK considering the extent of the blizzards.

There's no indication that the latest cyclone, Nilofar, will turn north into Nepal, but it is due to hit the coast of Gujarat tomorrow and move into Rajasthan, bringing high winds and rain, so it would make sense to keep an eye on its progress if you are trekking in the second half of the week. You'll find high level forecasts from the Nepal Meteorological Office here.

Are there any final numbers out yet? The nepali-born owner of himalayatrekking.ch claimed today that 21 of the fatalities were Israeli and only 8-9 Nepali. He said most of the fatalities were independent trekkers. This was in front of his Swiss clients who called independent trekking "pure egoism". To my knowledge however, Nepalis account for 23 out of 41 deaths, and the number of independent trekkers was unpublished. My question is, are my numbers wrong or are tour operators spreading lies for their own financial benefit? Disgusting thought that there might be profiteering from such a tragedy.

What? you think people/groups/etc may be spreading lies and profiteering from such a tragedy....have you heard of TAAN?! And for that matter I would suggest that the likelihood of money passing to the govt by such groups and large tour operators will have a major effect on any decision making.

Roger

The Himalayan Times is reporting that trekkers are being asked to be cautious trekking in the west of Nepal because of Cyclone Nilofar. More snow is predicted in the coming days and the advice is for travellers to stay below 3000m while the cyclone is passing through.

Post 4 - I understand your question, and I only have limited snow experience re trekking, but I'll have a stab at an answer. Hopefully others will be along as well on this.

In Oct 2005, we had about a metre (3 feet) of snow from Manang upwards. In places the snow had been shovelled off roof tops (as the weight could well cause roofs to collapse), so in some narrow passages it was very deep - I actually struggled quite a bit in places just to get out of Manang when we finally re-started trekking (though the 5 nights there were actually great fun - it was very social, lots of chatting, jokes, laughter, drinking, rumours (some very silly...) - most trekkers then were indy trekkers, due to the Maoist insurgency and the advice not to go trekking, but I digress).

Basically we walked in a narrow grove much of the way from Manang up to about the low camp at Thorung Phedi. Sometimes this was almost waist deep, other times just above the ankles. From the Thorung Phedi high camp, where we stopped for a cup of tea on our crossing day (we stayed at the low camp), until about 1 hour from the top of the pass, from re-looking at my photos, the snow was little different from when I did AC in Dec 2012 - ie about 2-3 inches deep on the trail, no doubt much deeper off the trail. However we were the last people over the pass that day, and got near the top about 12-1pm - for the last hour we were walking into the wind that builds up in the valley below (to the west) - the wind whipped up spin drift and basically filled the grove in the trail, which by then was about waist deep. This last hour to the top was extremely hard going - I was basically breaking trail thru the snow, and I was getting very cold (despite carrying about 17 kilos back then). We stopped at the tea hut at the top of the pass, did not take any photos at the top (it was too cold and there was a lot of snow blowing around - I was shivering), then after putting some more clothes on, we headed down - after 30-40 minutes we were out of the wind and everything got much, much easier.

As well as the very social atmosphere at Manang, the contrast of the pristine white snow against the incredibly blue skies from Manang to about 1 hour from the top of TL made for some amazing, fantastic views and photos, so the snow had its compensations. I did not hear about people crossing days later having any real problems - in my experience bad weather lasts only 2-3 days in Oct - Jan, so that is why it is fairly easy to wait it out (and much, much safer to do this).

In Oct 2013, Phailin dumped about 600mm (2 feet) of snow across much of the Everest region. Someone who did the 3 High Passes in Dec 2013 sent me some astonishing photos of hard, projecting ice on the west side of Cho La (a steep, high pass) - it seems it was the Phailin snow that had been formed into weirdly shaped, hard ice. It was totally different from anything I saw when I did the 3HPs in Jan 2010 and Dec 2010 - Jan 2011, when there was very little ice on the sides of the high passes - there is always thick, hard ice on the top of Cho La.

As above, see what others say, but conditions may be very localised. I am still planning to do the 3HPs again this Dec - Jan.

Good to hear and know you are still heading out there... likewise. like all nature lovers, we do the wait and see game however also not let the weather totally dicate our actions. as long as we exercise respect for nature, caution and well lots of praying! as they would say in pakistan, inshallah! cheryl

The Himalayan Times is reporting that lots of people are heading to the Annapurna region, despite travel warnings over Cyclone Nilofar. It's a reminder of how difficult any new warning system will be to enforce, even if it is adopted. Closing trails as a precaution in the event of bad weather would almost certainly save lives in the long term, but such a measure would not be well received by many trekkers, or by the local people who depend on the short tourist season for their livelihood. In both cases, the authorities will be accused of overkill if a storm turns out to be less severe than expected, and they will be accused of not doing enough if a trail is left open and conditions deteriorate, putting trekkers in harms' way. Striking the right balance between taking sensible precautions and over-reacting is likely to be a challenge.

Typical of the Himalayan Times. Cyclone Nilofar was widely reported as having weakened on 30th October. This story was posted on 1st November!

I can't see a warning system working for anything other than popular trails (ABC, AC, EBC). We were in the middle of rural lower Dolpa when the storm hit. I don't see who would have informed us.

As long as "trekking in Nepal" is promoted to people with little to no mountaineering experience, history will repeat itself. Better go and get some experience of being on the hills before attempting anything in the Himalaya.

Nepali guides are a mixed bag (in terms of mountain experience). As long as there is no agency regulating/training them, again, history will repeat itself.

In other countries, guiding is a proper profession. For example: where is the equivalent of a "Casa de Guias" in Kathmandu? It just doesn't exist. As an independent trekker, where do I go to get mountain information (e.g. I'm currently trying to find information on conditions at Dhaulagiri Base Camp). There just isn't anywhere.

The government would do well to set up such centres in, say, Kathmandu (Thamel) and Pokhara with proper reports of conditions from people on the ground around the country. Bodies such as the NMA are just useless fronts for the government to suck money from tourists.

Information is good but it makes very little sense to change travel plans because of a storm near Oman. Real problem in my eyes is that people do treks like AC with only one spare day in Kathmandu in the itinerary.
I took off being informed about the new cyclone thanks to Joe_Lp here. Haven't seen a drop of rain since Kathmandu and cloudless blue skies from morning to evening for at least a week now. I have plenty of time so in case of bad weather I would have stayed where I am.

Otherwise nothing has changed up here, weather forecast even in Manang seems impossible to get, ACAP office empty, no mobile phone reception anywhere near Thorong La. Still ice and snow on large stretches of track above 4900 m saw many people slipping. Ice cold strong wind on top must cover face against frostbite. Still girls in sneakers. Permit last checked a week ago so in case of problems no one would know who is in the danger zone. Greetings from Kagbeni

Hey
IM thinking about trekking on my own either in the area of Lukla / gokyo or AC: Is Nepal having especially bad weather for the season ? Is this not advisable ?

Is the weather in Nepal especially bad for the season ? Im heading to either Lukla or AC to trek on my own...

Hi Daniel,

What happened in October was unexpected but not unheard of at this time of year. Most years, the weather in Nepal is affected by a couple of cyclones in the Indian Ocean, but Cyclone Hudhud was a strong weather system and it came a long way north so it caught many people off guard.

I would have no issues trekking in either the Annapurna region or Solukhumbu (the Everest region) at this time of year, but I would always recommend checking the weather locally before you start trekking and talking to local people as you go so you have the best information possible. The best way to stay out of trouble is to be informed about the weather and take shelter if conditions turn bad, rather than pushing on in the hope that things will get better.

It also makes sense to carry things you might need in case of trouble - all-weather clothing, a survival bag, a means of purifying water, a means of navigating (compass and map or GPS). Nine times out of ten, you won't need everything, but it's better to carry stuff you don't need rather than not have things you do need if you get into trouble.

General wisdom is to trek with a companion if you can, but if you do trek unaccompanied, make sure someone knows when you are leaving, your route, and when you will finish your trek. That way someone will know you are missing in the very unlikely event that anything does go wrong.

I'd also say don't be too paranoid about safety - be prepared but remember that hundreds of thousands of people trek every year in Nepal with no problems at all.

thank you joe LP. i think these are all excellent advice. as much as we love nature and being close to nature we need to respect the mountains, listen to weather and update with people around us. i know i am planning to go on ABC trek around 1st week dec and hope that things, weather will be ok by then. being around people and trekking with people will be good way to stay in touch. all the best to all, happy trekking

A new reportof the body of a trekker missing since the October blizzard being recovered in the Annapurna region. Three Canadians and three guides are still unaccounted for.

What about the many trekkers in Dolpo who were listed as 'not heard from'. Have they all come back safely? Did they have any problems?

I hadn't seen this before.....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/nepal/11170488/Nepal-trekkers-kicked-out-of-lodge-during-snow-storm-blame-local-greed-for-eight-deaths.html

Very interesting article (previous post) to say the least. The article was published back on 17 October -- so one has to wonder why it hasn't been big news (like Roger I was completely unaware of it). Clearly, if something like this happened to US trekkers, it would be HUGE news here in the US.

Right, backintheusa, I noticed the pub date too, but had never seen the article before (or a similar type article) and I often check Nepal news sources.

And I can't help but thinking, in hindsight of course, why not just bivouac in the hut with your bag and warm gear with plenty of other people and wait the wx out, even for a couple of days. Perhaps a better choice than follow a fellow down in treacherous and deteriorating conditions.

Roger -- No question that's what they should have done. Unless there was some overarching concern with hunkering down (the only real thing I can think of would be if the lodge was in a potential avalanche area, or if there were altitude sickness or other medical issues), best bet would be to wait it out. Heading down late in the day in a snowstorm is not a good idea.

Re your other point (about not hearing about the story until now), I wonder if it got recanted for some reason. Otherwise, it's just hard for me to believe that this didn't get picked up in the UK press big time, and for that matter, in the US as well (but less so of course).

that article has already been on here when it was all happening
don't know how credible it is

ok, guess I missed it.....Roger

Well Joe, checking the weather locally is easier said than done. While you can ask any old farmer's wife in the European Alps and she knows exactly if rain or shine tomorrow, none of the locals in Nepal had any idea at all, and I speak enough Nepali to ask those questions. All I got is I don't know. In Manang not many places seem to offer Wifi, when I asked for an information office people pointed to the western doctors office even though I was almost next to the ACAP which was open but no one inside. Later a middle-aged Nepali man came. Weather? No idea. Conditions on trail to Tilicho? Better ask in the next village (Khansgar). After Manang no more Internet and no mobile reception possible wherever I checked. Asking again at Yak Kharka some smart guide recommended I use the lodge's landline to call someone in my country, ask them to check the weather online, and call them again in 10 minutes to ask for results. People do that, he said.

Nepal is a developing 3rd world country which will become obvious once you stray off the tourist circuit . Try not to expect the same services as in Switzerland .

Any more such clever comments out there?

I was at Manang couple summers ago and headed to Tilico Lake . Stayed in Khansgar and asking about the route to the lake got one or two word answers even tho the lodge was full inebriated folks who knew the area well . No problem . The trail turned out to be treacherously steep gravel sides with no visible trail ,,,extremely dangerous . I turned back after too many hairy moments . My point is that there is no reliable info coming from the Nepalis usually . They want us to pay a guide for that .

...you can ask any old farmer's wife in the European Alps and she knows exactly if rain or shine tomorrow...

After all the recent talk about how hard it is to predict mountain weather, I'm glad to hear that, at least in the alps, the farmer's wives have a perfect track record! Maybe they should start a web service?

Agree with skyline1, and as an average trekker I have been somewhat annoyed at all the bemoaning that has occurred concerning the lack of fancy comm/sat data, wx downloads, etc and blame being placed on the Nepali govt for not providing this info---they are just not set up to deliver it, that is just the way it IS, heck they can barely get water and electricity to their own capital, why the H should they invest in fancy techno stuff for trekkers/tourists? To me trekkers should be more 'involved' in observing what is going on around them....your best source of info as has been expressed in this thread and emphasized in others on AC in particular recently is your eyeballs and your brain. Monitor the sky and clouds for some days (why not everyday?) prior to the pass and see the trend---afternoon clouds? clearing at night/clr in the morning?, or breaking up later and later or whatever. If it is nice clr wx as can often be expected and all of a sudden higher clouds, cirrus type, move in and next day or so lower clouds, well this tells you something....

I wasn't there and do not know how fast the wx 'changed' but I find it hard to believe the snow swept in out of clr skys with no warning after trekkers had departed from high camp. Rather I think likely people departed into deteriorating conditions both that morning and with reference to conditions the prior few days....

Every time you approach any pass the wx and the trend is of utmost importance....this all seems too obvious to state but it seems that this facet of trekking was ignored to a lessor or greater extent. The idea that people think that all of sudden all kinds of sat photos, foreign wx broadcasts, upto date internet links, and overseas phone call wx updates are required seems frankly, absurd to me....ok, if they are readily available you use them, as had been said if you are in Switzerland or wherever, but for all practical purposes they are not and will not be available for years in Nepal yet generations of trekkers have some made it over all the passes in Nepal on a reg basis. Freak storms occur and anyone can get caught, even professionals as we have seen, but to me that does not mean you ignore the basics of what your eyes are telling you and your brain is saying.

Roger

This is the post that never dies!!!! :)

While on one hand, I completely agree with Roger, that the trekkers themselves should to be congizant of the weather around them (and know how to "read" it), the reality is that we cannot depend on every trekker to be prepared to do this. On the other hand I think Nepal is missing an opportunity here. Rather than the expensive, probably not effective, and difficult to administer guide requirement, I think a very doable, effective and low cost way to help with the situation is for Nepal to provide a regular daily weather forecast explicitly for trekkers (at least during the high seasons). The forecast could be in English and broadcast on Radio Nepal at a set time (each evening?), and trekkers could be educated about this when they get their TIMS card. Everyone could know that they need to check the weather each evening (and even if you miss the broadcast itself, you'll know to ask other trekkers in the lodge what the forecast was).

Note that Nepal already does this for the mountaineering expeditions -- there is (or at least was) a nightly mountain forecast, broadcast in English, which is fairly detailed, including wind speeds at various altitudes. I see no reason why they can't do the same for trekkers (i.e. the forecast focused on the hills & lower mountains, as opposed to the high mountains in particular). There is already a an available nightly forecast in the English language news each evening, but his is for the country in general, and probably not sufficient for trekkers.

This solution would requrie no new infrastructure (e.g. no need for the the GPS devices that they are talking about, and no worries about cell phone reception problems), and could be implemented with very, very little additional cost to the govt. Maybe the only issue is that this approach won't provide a new revenue source for the country (as the guide requirement does...)

Good idea. And as there are now many many AM and FM stations throughout the country these days coverage for most areas should work. At a given time on many radio stations weather conditions/and forecasts pertinent to trekkers could be broadcast....surely much more cost effective as well as less onerous than the absurd GPS thing and mandatory guide for each trekker/group/whatever, however not as lucrative for TAAN and govt officials, so I have my doubts that common sense will prevail.

Roger

I still think that with many Nepalis having mobile phones, this would be the best way of spreading an advance, general warning about possible severe weather. There was sufficient warning about Phailin in Oct 2013 and Hudhud in Oct 2014. For Phailin, as I posted above, I, sat in the UK, using my humble mobile (it is not even a "smart" phone) was able via text messages to warn the 2 guides I trek with about its possible approach - they were both up in the Everest region (with different parties).

Surely something similar can be done via the Nepali mobile companies - even if people are in coverage blackspots, guides move around by nature of the work, and word would soon spread. It can't be that difficult, can it? No need for inappropriate high tech investments - at least half the money for which would find its way into the pockets of the well connected (politically, not telephonically).

I certainly agree with the need to use eyes, and then engage brain, to assess the weather, especially major changes in the strength and direction of the wind which could be bringing in snow, and cloud build up. No cloud build up means no snow. Cloud build up means big risk of snow high up.

As also posted above, this mania for setting off ridiculously early to cross a high pass may have been a factor - you ain't going to get much of a view of say cloud build up if it is pitch dark and freezing cold when you set off. Bit late to start seeing heavy cloud as the sun comes up if you are then 2-3 hours into a trek with no shelter anywhere.

Also complacency may have been a factor - you get posts saying in effect "doing X was easy when I did it - no need for warm clothing, can't see what all the fuss is about etc etc". Certainly thousands of people will have trekked AC in the past year with no major weather related problems, but when the weather does turn bad, which it will do every so often, things change a bit...

It would be good to read a proper analysis of what went so wrong (40 or so dead), if one is ever written up, but I suspect it will all be slowly forgotten.

good idea for a mobile phone or radio 'storm warning' service. both are cheap and available methods for public announcements. I suggest the service must be:

• explicitly for ALL the people in Nepal Himalaya, not just in the trekking areas or involved in trekking. some of the people who lost their lives in this storm were yak herders and farmers. that might imply multi-lingual broadcasts etc.
• explicitly paid for by tourist-trekkers. costs are going to go up anyway, whether that be for GPS rental, forced guiding or whatever cash-for-the-already-rich scheme the Nepal govt and TAAN can think up. If tourist-trekkers are explicitly paying for a service there is a better chance of that service being supplied. It might also make indy trekking more acceptable.

A service like that could be set up by an NGO initially.

Perhaps this is naive dreaming, but many of the reports emerging from this disaster (credible or not)and related anecdotes on this board are sad testimonies to the problems caused by the vast disparity in wealth and opportunity blighting relationships between tourists and locals in Nepal. Finding solutions to lesson that divide could help save lives of tourists and locals alike.

yes, of course include a Nepali language part of a broadcast too.....I don't think it has to be some exotic specific thing that requires extra cost/fees by trekkers....all it takes is taking avbl info from various sources in Nepal and online already specifically tailored for this. Weather info is already broadcast on radio, it would just be someone tailoring a broadcast for freezing levels, winds at altitude, approaching weather systems, barometric pressure and the like. Readily available now...it just takes some existing person in one of the many govt agencies---TAAN maybe, or the tourist ministry to gather it. OR someone in the weather dept of the govt of Nepal can easily gather the info from their own or online sources in use by climbers etc and tailor that and put it out to various radio stations via email on a daily basis at a set time----it isn't that big of a deal and the last thing we need is another bureaucracy to something so straightforward.

Is this thread still going on ?. Well I went over Larke about 8 days ago and although it was clear there was still a lot of snow up there. But guess what it appears that nobody has learnt a thing. There was one Nepali porter with a pair of converse pumps on and another with a pair of crocks on with socks over the outside for extra grip !!!. Unbelievable!!!

It should not be happening anyway but trek companies and trekkers, if must be, must insist on adequate gear for porters---and that they use it as appropriate. But they should at least have it.

ok, sounds fair points , i thought there might be more costs involved. but that begs the question: if a radio weather warning forecast is cheap and easy to setup why isn't it done alreeady?

Because it is Nepal and they have no idea what they are doing? And even for the knowledgeable and concerned individuals sprinkled throughout the govt agencies etc they could never get it thru the vast and corrupt bureaucracies and politicians in the govt....no one will make any decisions unless it benefits them directly, can not possible make them responsible for anything (thus jeopardizing their existing position), and doesn't interfere with other's bakshish fiefdoms. See TAAN.

Yes, and add to that, this whole incident is manna from heaven for TAAN -- the absolutely mouth-watering opportunity for them to finally get the mandatory guide requirement thru...

So what actually happened up there ?I read reports from the tea hut at the top of the pass that the owner was closing up shop in middle of storm.

#196#
Like you I would like to know more about this.
I also read there was a porter involved who died found with a lot of cash on his body.
Read about this in Gaurdian.co.uk

yes, i kinda thought the reality would be something like that. the post-storm declarations from the nepali govt/TAAN so far all seem to be extra ways for them to profit.

but it does suggest that there's space for an NGO to provide a mountain weather/warning service. interesting job for someone(s) to put together.

Again I do not think we need a new structure---no special NGOs, no new taxes on trekkers, etc etc....way back on this thread as well in other threads concerning wx availability for AC and mtns in Nepal many links to internal and external wx sources were provided. The info is already out there (wx is already broadcast on Nepali tv and radio).....all that has to be done is get some guy, a Nepali in the whatever Nepali wx service exists now or a TAAN designated person if they are truly so concerned about the safety of trekkers, to gather some of these links together, monitor them, and make a pretty much standard broadcast with current and/or forecast wx info via some sort of audio link or email to a preselected group of radio station addressees in Nepal for broadcast throughout the country, in Nepali and English at a set time or or if a developing situation warrants/ at any time.
And hopefully lodge owners, guides etc will make an effort to receive/obtain the info that is broadcast at a set time as awareness of the new 'service/info' becomes known. ....trekkers should then pester guides and lodge owners, especially at higher altitudes and before passes etc requesting what was said. Trek agencies can monitor the broadcasts too and if the situations warrants phone or text guides and hope for reception---nothing is perfect in Nepal but do let 'the perfect be the enemy of the good' ...pretty soon people will be paying attn to the broadcast as it will be expected that this knowledge is wanted and useful and it will become an established part of trekking to whatever extent it can work in Nepal for all types of trekkers......it really doesn't seem that difficult.....I have given it no thought other than off the top of my head here while writing this so surely someone knowledgeable and concerned and in Nepal can make come up with a workable scenario.

Roger

Exactly!! (hands slowly clapping)

To some extent such "warning system" can be prepared individually by each trekker by having somebody with internet access checking up-to-date weather forecasts - see here: https://www.lonelyplanet.com/thorntree/forums/asia-indian-subcontinent/topics/weather-advice-how-to-reduce-the-risk-of-getting-caught-in-sudden-bad-weather-while-trekking-in-nepal

A body of a Japanese tourist, who had gone missing in a blizzard that hit Manang district in October, has been found on Thursday. http://www.ekantipur.com/2014/11/30/top-story/body-of-japanese-tourist-recovered-from-manang/398356.html

I was in Bupsa, on my way from Shivalaya to Gokyo when the storm hit. News of the storm was on the trail two days before it hit. Trekkers that I bumped into and lodge owners that I asked all had details of the storm -- how strong it was and when it would hit. The day of the storm, I even heard what time the storm would hit, which turned out to be accurate to within 1 hour. Thankfully, in Bupsa, we just had torrential rains with lots of thunder and lighting, but no snow (too warm at that altitude).

So, what confuses me is why no one on the AC seemingly knew of the approaching storm. Just about everybody I spoke with in my area had full details of the storm days ahead. Could it really be that the news never made it to Manang and above? Or, did people hear the news and just underestimate the severity of the approaching weather? Seems to me there was plenty of advanced warning. Perhaps bad judgment is more to blame than lack of warning. It would be good to hear from someone who was on the AC when the storm hit to get the real story.

"Perhaps bad judgment is more to blame than lack of warning"....likely a major factor.

That's interesting Pelke, we were in Lobuche on the 8th October and a couple told us that they had just been up to the 'Pyramid' (the climate observatory). They were invited in and told by the scientist in there that a big snow storm was going to hit on the 13th October. We took the information on board and relayed it to other trekkers that crossed our paths. For us on the morning of the 13th we were leaving Phortse for Namche and looking back to the mountains you could see the weather was closing in and we were concerned for the trekkers on Cho La. It wasn't till we got back to Kathmandu that we heard the full extent of the storm. I too have wondered why this information that came out of the 'pyramid' (albeit unofficially 5 days prior) could not be used in an official capacity.

Posts 203 + 205 - good to hear from people who trekking in Nepal at that time, albeit in or heading to the Everest region.

These posts reinforce my view that there needs to be some "explaining" about the disaster in the Annapurna region - factors such as tight itineraries (which can be dangerous in all sorts of ways), pushy clients and/or agencies, setting off to cross Thorung La when it is dark and so you won't be able to judge any cloud build up until it is too late, sheer inexperience etc may explain the disaster to at least some extent, but if people in other parts of Nepal, and outside Nepal, were warned in advance, then what was happening, or not happening, in the Annapurna area?

Apart from TAAN trying to exploit the situation, I assume that, as per usual, the Nepali authorities will do nothing, and the whole thing will gradually recede from people's awareness.

From #205 above: "For us on the morning of the 13th we were leaving Phortse for Namche and looking back to the mountains you could see the weather was closing in and we were concerned ..." exactly, it is called using your eyeballs and your brain, two things that appeared not to used much on Annapurna.

From #206 above: "These posts reinforce my view that there needs to be some "explaining" about the disaster in the Annapurna region - factors such as tight itineraries (which can be dangerous in all sorts of ways), pushy clients and/or agencies, setting off to cross Thorung La when it is dark and so you won't be able to judge any cloud build up until it is too late, sheer inexperience etc may explain the disaster to at least some extent..."....all good points.

From #203 above: "Perhaps bad judgment is more to blame than lack of warning".....

IMHO, ultimately it is up to the individual on the spot at the time to assess conditions and procedures and make the safe choice, and use your eyeballs and your brain. This storm did not just drop out of the sky with no visible precursors, there had to be visible warnings, in the sky, before hand.

This post has been removed because it may not have met our community guidelines.

I read an online account by one of the Thorung La survivors that claimed their group started early, before light and that it was snowing when they started but their guide said it would be alright. Don't have the article link now, but a bit of searching online should find it. Perhaps the guides had seen early morning snow that turned to acceptable weather on past trips. Maybe a barometer, especially in the hands of a guide familiar with past readings at given points along the route, could have indicated something more severe on the way.

For people on non-guided trips and seeing a route for the first time, turning around could be advantageous because you are going back over ground you have just seen, rather than pushing ahead into an area where you might become disoriented.

Edit: found article link - 'Nepal blizzard: survivor tells of friends’ deaths on Annapurna circuit'
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/16/nepal-blizzard-survivor-deaths-annapurna-refuge
"We left at 5.30am and it was snowing but the guides said it was OK, then on the way it just turned into the biggest storm ever"

Nice information !

Hi everyone,
In the absence of any new information coming in on the disaster, I'm going to unpeg this topic from the top of Thorntree Nepal page. Thank you for all your messages - if any new information is released on the proposed changes for trekkers in Nepal, I'll post it on this forum.
Joe_LP

Excellent job, Joe. Thanks.

Great job indeed, Joe!