Travel advisory - Snowstorms in Annapurna National Park

Shall we ask joe_LP to move the interesting discussion about how to prevent such incidents to a new thread and keep this one for emergency news? Can you please, Joe? And if you have any information as to why the groups are turning back from Manang, that would be helpful. On the pictures it looks like blue skies and the snow is melting, is the trek still buried or destroyed by avalanche, is is closed for more rescue operations, is more bad weather coming? Thanks Joe!

A good suggestion - I'll get onto this once I've sent some more updates.

More rescued travellers and sadly more bodies of travellers caught in the disaster are being bought down to Kathmandu from Jomsom. TAAN is posting regular updates. A terrible time for Nepal and for travellers everywhere.

You are right that weather forecast is never 100% sure. But in the Alps the weather is actually much more variable and less predictable than in high season in the Nepal Himalaya. Freak storms in Nepal Himalaya in October or November like the one this week are usually caused by cylones that make a landfall in India at least a few days earlier and then move inland. Such events are quite easy to predict, as it takes some time for the cyclone to reach Nepal. In such cases it is very predictable that there will be a period of bad weather in the mountains when the cyclone reaches them. Obviously the exact scale of the trouble cannot be predicted but in such cases it is obvious that there will be snow in the upper parts, much rain in the lower areas and that it will take only a few days, as the weather tends to stabilize very quickly in this part of the year. That makes it quite feasible to issue a warning (or even close the trail) just for 2 days or so covered by the worst forecast, when the cyclone is actually to reach the area.
As to disrupting people's plans etc. - while going on a trek such as the AC it is anyway imperative to have those few days in reserve.

I agree with the suggestion to shift this discussion to a separate thread - sorry for starting it here in the first place.

Hi Meczko - there'll be a lot if dissecting of why this tragedy happened, and what can be done to prevent it happening in the coming days and it's a very valid discussion.

It seems certain that some kind of early warning system needs to be implemented but with reports of dozens more trekkers now missing in Upper Dolpo, the focus now is on finding people and getting them out.

TAAN have been posting updates all morning on rescued trekkers and bodies of those lost in the disaster being transported to hospitals in Pokhara and Kathmandu. You can follow the latest on the TAAN website or Facebook.

UPDATE: TAAN are reporting that the Thorung La is blocked by snow and trekking groups are being asked to stop or turn back at Manang. See here.

about to leave for Nepa to trek - not Anapurna (was there in 2000) - planned on Gokyo, which was reportedly not affected by the snowstorm, however it seems much, much colder and wetter this year - is there a way to assess the weather forecasts? is this a particularly bad year, should we cancel altogether or settle for Langtang, if that too won't be too rainy? We can still cancel, as it is not fun to walk in the rain....

TAAN will be providing details of the 37 people rescued today from the Thorung La shortly. The rescued include 12 Nepalis, 7 Germans, 8 French, 3 Austrian, 3 Indians, 1 Australian, 1 Italian, 1 British and 1 Swiss. See the TAAN live feed.

Currently there are no reports of severe weather in the Solukhumbu region, and no indications that cyclonic weather will affect this area in the coming days. The Nepal meteorological office has general forecasts and I don't see anything there to suggest problems in this area. On any trek at any time of year it always makes sense to seek local advice, but the treks to Gokyo and Base Camp have good infrastructure and on the earlier stages, I think you should be OK if you get advice along the route.

If flights are landing at Lukla, then the weather conditions are clear enough for a line of sight landings, which is a good indication of the general conditions - ask Yeti or one of the other airlines for the current status of flights. You will be able to get reliable information on weather further up the trails in Lukla and Namche Bazaar and it's only when you get beyond Namche that infrastructure is reduced and shelter becomes less frequent.

It's worth noting that the main risk is being caught without shelter, and it is only at the higher stages of the Gokyo or EBC treks that there are long gaps between lodges. On the Gokyo trek, trekkers only leave the treeline north of Dole and Gokyo itself is a large village that is occupied year round.

If you reach Namche and find that there are problems further up the trail, there's plenty to do around the area if you do find you have to wait bad weather affecting the higher stages on the trek (including side treks to Thame, Tengboche, Khumjung and Khunde).

Hope that helps!

Not my normal source of information but pretty informative 'first hand' accounts, pictures and graphics available here

Update