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200
In response to #199

Exactly!! (hands slowly clapping)

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201
In response to #199

To some extent such "warning system" can be prepared individually by each trekker by having somebody with internet access checking up-to-date weather forecasts - see here: https://www.lonelyplanet.com/thorntree/forums/asia-indian-subcontinent/topics/weather-advice-how-to-reduce-the-risk-of-getting-caught-in-sudden-bad-weather-while-trekking-in-nepal

Edited by meczko
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202

A body of a Japanese tourist, who had gone missing in a blizzard that hit Manang district in October, has been found on Thursday. http://www.ekantipur.com/2014/11/30/top-story/body-of-japanese-tourist-recovered-from-manang/398356.html

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203

I was in Bupsa, on my way from Shivalaya to Gokyo when the storm hit. News of the storm was on the trail two days before it hit. Trekkers that I bumped into and lodge owners that I asked all had details of the storm -- how strong it was and when it would hit. The day of the storm, I even heard what time the storm would hit, which turned out to be accurate to within 1 hour. Thankfully, in Bupsa, we just had torrential rains with lots of thunder and lighting, but no snow (too warm at that altitude).

So, what confuses me is why no one on the AC seemingly knew of the approaching storm. Just about everybody I spoke with in my area had full details of the storm days ahead. Could it really be that the news never made it to Manang and above? Or, did people hear the news and just underestimate the severity of the approaching weather? Seems to me there was plenty of advanced warning. Perhaps bad judgment is more to blame than lack of warning. It would be good to hear from someone who was on the AC when the storm hit to get the real story.

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204

"Perhaps bad judgment is more to blame than lack of warning"....likely a major factor.

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205

That's interesting Pelke, we were in Lobuche on the 8th October and a couple told us that they had just been up to the 'Pyramid' (the climate observatory). They were invited in and told by the scientist in there that a big snow storm was going to hit on the 13th October. We took the information on board and relayed it to other trekkers that crossed our paths. For us on the morning of the 13th we were leaving Phortse for Namche and looking back to the mountains you could see the weather was closing in and we were concerned for the trekkers on Cho La. It wasn't till we got back to Kathmandu that we heard the full extent of the storm. I too have wondered why this information that came out of the 'pyramid' (albeit unofficially 5 days prior) could not be used in an official capacity.

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206

Posts 203 + 205 - good to hear from people who trekking in Nepal at that time, albeit in or heading to the Everest region.

These posts reinforce my view that there needs to be some "explaining" about the disaster in the Annapurna region - factors such as tight itineraries (which can be dangerous in all sorts of ways), pushy clients and/or agencies, setting off to cross Thorung La when it is dark and so you won't be able to judge any cloud build up until it is too late, sheer inexperience etc may explain the disaster to at least some extent, but if people in other parts of Nepal, and outside Nepal, were warned in advance, then what was happening, or not happening, in the Annapurna area?

Apart from TAAN trying to exploit the situation, I assume that, as per usual, the Nepali authorities will do nothing, and the whole thing will gradually recede from people's awareness.

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207

From #205 above: "For us on the morning of the 13th we were leaving Phortse for Namche and looking back to the mountains you could see the weather was closing in and we were concerned ..." exactly, it is called using your eyeballs and your brain, two things that appeared not to used much on Annapurna.

From #206 above: "These posts reinforce my view that there needs to be some "explaining" about the disaster in the Annapurna region - factors such as tight itineraries (which can be dangerous in all sorts of ways), pushy clients and/or agencies, setting off to cross Thorung La when it is dark and so you won't be able to judge any cloud build up until it is too late, sheer inexperience etc may explain the disaster to at least some extent..."....all good points.

From #203 above: "Perhaps bad judgment is more to blame than lack of warning".....

IMHO, ultimately it is up to the individual on the spot at the time to assess conditions and procedures and make the safe choice, and use your eyeballs and your brain. This storm did not just drop out of the sky with no visible precursors, there had to be visible warnings, in the sky, before hand.

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208
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209

I read an online account by one of the Thorung La survivors that claimed their group started early, before light and that it was snowing when they started but their guide said it would be alright. Don't have the article link now, but a bit of searching online should find it. Perhaps the guides had seen early morning snow that turned to acceptable weather on past trips. Maybe a barometer, especially in the hands of a guide familiar with past readings at given points along the route, could have indicated something more severe on the way.

For people on non-guided trips and seeing a route for the first time, turning around could be advantageous because you are going back over ground you have just seen, rather than pushing ahead into an area where you might become disoriented.

Edit: found article link - 'Nepal blizzard: survivor tells of friends’ deaths on Annapurna circuit'
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/16/nepal-blizzard-survivor-deaths-annapurna-refuge
"We left at 5.30am and it was snowing but the guides said it was OK, then on the way it just turned into the biggest storm ever"

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