I think it's difficult to predict now how many Americans would visit Cuba, as a major factor that shapes opinions, tastes and interests in the West is currently absent: marketing. Given a little push from the best marketing machine in the world, some catchy lines playing with the fact that Cuba was forbidden for so long and a modest media campaign by agents willing to make some money, US tourist indifference could be diminished. I can imagine Cuba becoming a very fashionable destination for Americans.
I think Americans would get more of a visit to Cuba than Europeans do, because they will see things that may remind them of childhood years (like old cars, retro deco, old machines or even old habits in a society that is still very influenced by American culture).
Cuba recently announced a plan to increase airport capacity by 50% and there has been some public talk of widening jetties. Judging from Cuban TV, the communists seem to take it for granted that the Democrats will win the coming elections (which makes the dream of the travel ban abolishment just a bit less distant).
Here's a US tourist industry report on projected Cuba travel by Americans through 2010, dated 5/1/07.
ASTA estimate from 2007.
Brattle Group 2002 Study
1.8 million visits by 2010, without an Embargo? I think that's an excessively optimistic picture: Americans are traveling overseas at lower rates, far below previous projections (was someone looking at pre-9/11 numbers??!), and thats a dirty little secret that has the global tourist industry worried. Especially the Canadians, Mexicans and the Caribbean resorts.
But there you have it: an 'informed opinion' which suggests a baseline answer (what percentage of 310 mil. Americans in 2010) for the OP's question: if 78 million Americans have passports (the 'traveling Americans') now - my GUESS! - what percentage goes to the Caribbean? What fraction of those would care to visit Cuba? Maybe it would be around 2.3% all passport holders.
An estimated 60 million Americans had passports in 2005, with 97 mil. projected holders by the end of 2007.
Americans are not more stupid that others, just more ignorant considering their level of "education".
99% believe it is illegal to travel to Cuba, only 1% know it is only illegal to spend money in Cuba.
Last week some born-agains opened a "Creation" museum in Kentucky that shows dinosaurs being
loaded on Noah's Ark. Supposedly 60% of Americans believe the world was created by God in the
last 10,000 years, because it is written in the bible. They would believe the world is flat if it was
written in the bible.
If there were 21 million visits to the Caribbean in 2006, and about 50% are Americans, 2007 US tourist numbers (gotta have that passport!) will probably annihilate the 2 million visitor assumption. Thats 20% of ALL American visits to the region now, and considerably more than the # of Bahamas visits in 2006.
Of US Caribbean tourism, 'everyone & their 3rd cousin Bob' will be going to Cuba. Instead of ... everywhere else? I just dont buy it. Consider the language & culture barrier: only 1 million Americans visited the DR in 2005, about 1 million American visits for Jamaica too. Both countries are expect to take a big hit on US visits w/ the new passport regs in place, maybe 30% decline in US visits. So how the hell will 2 million Yanks suddenly 'up & go to Cuba' in 2010?
Every other Caribe destination will be crying or dying. My silver dollar sez the AntiCubans' Congressional patsies in both parties will be getting HUGE donations from Caribbean tourism PACs to keep this Embargo in place.
Isnt that what American politics is all about?
"... 99% believe it is illegal to travel to Cuba, only 1% know it is only illegal to spend money in Cuba..."
That's a meaningless statement for an American tourist. It's illegal no matter how you spin it.
Cheers,
Terry
<blockquote>Quote
<hr>99% believe it is illegal to travel to Cuba, only 1% know it is only illegal to spend money in Cuba.<hr></blockquote>
I suppose technically it is not a violation of the CACRs to buy a plane ticket to Cuba from a carrier other than CUBANA, but that is about as far as you can stretch or spin the quoted statement. The regulations prohibit persons subject to US jurisdiction from engaging in financial transactions in which Cuban nationals or the Cuban government have an interest, directly or indirectly, including transactions related to travel. Since one needs to buy a tourist card--a transaction in which the Cuban government has a financial interest--in order to enter Cuba it is impossible to enter the country and not violate the CACRs unless the traveler is licensed by the OFAC.
Actually, even just buying the ticket from Mexicana or someone else benefits the Cuban gvt, since they derive landing fees, etc, from the airline. Otherwise, it wouldn't cost $300 friggen dollars for the same weeny little hour-or-so flight from Cancun. I'm sure the Cuban gvt it taking a big tasty bite of that.
E Armand- that is a very astute point about the Caribbean travel PAC's joining
forces with the Miami Mafia to double bribe the congressional prostitutes into
renewing the blockade/embargo "hasta siempre".
It is called a "Parliment of Whores" by O'Rourke.
Where is the land of the "free" and the home of the brave?
trusted partner
