How much danger does this person seem to be in?

mariadne- I was there for one month in the 1980s, between the slaughters. It was quiet, lush, and fertile. Yes, I made the trek and saw the gorillas and enjoyed the European qualities grafted onto the country, like the restaurants and bakery products. At the Mille Colies Hotel (yes, the same one that gained future fame) I took in the disturbing black and white photos of the slaughter of the inconvenient elephant herd. Did that animal event portend future developments with humans? I was glad to see the famed photos, but I did wonder what kind of place would display them so openly.

The awareness of the past was present all the time, and there was a feeling that all the present niceness could (would?) evaporate very quickly. There was also a sense of marvel at the density of the population, the number of huts on those green hills. Foreigners with rural backgounds also marveled at the richess of the soil. All the dirt was like potting compound, with multiple crops possible. The land right up to the gorilla park was intensively farmed.

So, yes, I was there and I soaked up the German-Belgian (including Flemish)-French-Tutsi-Hutu vibrations. The nearest bright lights were in Nairobi, and Rwandans marveled at what they saw there. One comment of a Rwandan colleague in Nairobi concerned how groups of Kenyans who did not know each other all ate and drank in the same restaurant, rather in family groups at home, like Rwanda.

When it all comes apart I try to match match up what I had experienced with what is in the news.

I am cetainly aware of the intense desire of many Rwandans to find a future outside their country.

One last observation: I was struck by the number and range of missionary groups in the country. Most were from small independent churches rather than the more mainline denominations more commonly found in mission work. I have no idea how this last observation fits into the whole history of Rwanda, including the recent history.

Just to confirm that I have never visited Rwanda. In general, electronic surveillance requires a high level of technical skill, and usually there are easier ways for governments to identify their opponents.

The following articles appeared two days ago in the New York Times, on May 17, 2010. They seem consistent with what Meriadne and Sarah say on this thread.
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The New York Times
BUTARE, Rwanda — When Eva Mutoni’s boyfriend of three years broke up with her, she realized she should have seen it coming.

Ms. Mutoni, 25, whose mother is ethnic Tutsi and whose father is Hutu, and her boyfriend, a full-blooded Tutsi, were college sweethearts at the National University of Rwanda in Butare.
“A year into the relationship, we had a big talk about me being mixed,” she said. They weathered that discussion, aided by the fact that Ms. Mutoni identifies herself as Tutsi. But as they got older, she recalls, his family and some of his friends refused to accept his dating someone of mixed parentage.

“He knew he couldn’t stay with me forever in Rwanda,” she said. “To some, I’m just a Hutu girl.”

Sixteen years after the Rwandan genocide, ethnicity remains an inescapable part of growing up for the young people who will determine the nation’s future. And if the universities, where the government has focused its efforts on building a post-ethnic society, represent the great hope of coexistence, they have so far succeeded only in burying ethnic tensions just beneath the surface.

As presidential elections approach and the nation has grown more repressive, the campuses have become tense. Students say that they are being watched, and that the laws aimed at suppressing ethnic differences have made them afraid to speak openly.

Read the rest of the article here

Edited by: docbrown

When I was in Rwanda in 2008 Kagame was extremely well-liked if not revered by virtually everyone I spoke with. People seemed extremely appreciative of the safety, stability, and improved economy they felt he had brought to Rwanda since 1994, and proud to have him as their leader. I'm sure those I spoke with could have found ways to talk around the questions I was asking them, or to offer vague, non-responsive, unenthusiastic replies, or to change the subject if they were simply trying to stay out of trouble. It's therefore difficult for me to understand why the government is acting in the ways reported, in the months leading up to the August election.

Given Rwanda's recent history I can understand why limits are placed on what people can say about ethnicity and ethnic relations. What I don't understand is why the mention of RPF revenge crimes, in the wake of the 1994 genocide, is treated and prosecuted as "divisionism." Given the extent and intensity of the genocide, it would seem implausible that at least some returning soldiers and officers would not have taken matters into their own hands. I don't understand why acknowledging this reality of human nature isn't part of the government's "truth and reconciliation" policy. Statistically and otherwise, what occurred following the RPF victory in 1994 could hardly be compared, as a "second genocide," to what preceded it.

It's nice that Dutch Uncle has fond memories of the "quiet, lush, fertile" Rwanda and its "German-Belgian-Hutu-Tutsi vibe," where he visited the gorillas in the 1980's. Especially since the OP asks for the opinions of "anyone more familiar than I am with the current climate," I don't understand what might have led him to think his experiences 20-30 years ago qualify him to assume that my friend is "laying a guilt trip" on me, or that he simply wants to leave Rwanda in search of a higher living standards.

Nobody trusts anyone, so I'm not suprised that all you got was a rosy picture. However, I am extremely surprised the students are happy to be named and quoted in the NYT article. I wonder what will happen to them?

The grenade attacks on Saturday coincided with Kagame being formally elected as the RPF presidential candidate.

Andrew K- You did get some clarifications out of your effort here

-refugee: the part about "well founded fear" and "outside the country of origin" has not changed over the years, and does not hold much hope for the individual you described

-visitor: He must demonstrate to the satisfaction of the visa officer that he has a permanent home outside the US to which he will return after his temporary stay in the US. In a reverse of the normal situation, the burden of proof is on the applicant to demonstrate that he will leave the US after his visit. Applicants are presumed to be immigrants, intending a permanent stay in the USA, until they demonstrate otherwise and can be classed as non-immigrants. Yes, it is odd to describe people by what they are not, rather than what they are, but that is the ball park your man is playing in.

-employee of international organization, NGO, commercial firm and similar: That status starts with the organization, and from there to the consular officer, not the reverse.

-student: Have you checked this possibility out?

It is a bleak outlook. There is indeed a major element of guilt by associaiton, since so many young Africans, especially young African men, see a better future outside their home countries. Since you have been in Africa you are certainly aware of this condition, and can understand the assumption.

Check out the student possibility. Or perhaps the guy can teach?

I think there is a nice island resort waiting for your Rwandan buddy:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/01/world/africa/01rwanda.html?scp=3&sq=rwanda%20island&st=cse

About email surveillance, I am sure that Tutsi oligarchy is fully functional with this. They are promoting technology with every public utterance, and when you are an African dictator and free money flows daily into your land from so many aid projects, a big portion will go into control of your population: keeping them uneducated (Meles), keeping them full and wearing colors of the ruling party (Bingu), keeping them fighting (Kibaki), watching every move of the poor with spies and the educated by monitoring communications (Kagame). This is not rocket science.

The New York Times articles posted in #24 and #28, together with the observations of Sarah1968 and Mariadne on this thread, convince me that my friend's concerns can't be dismissed as post-traumatic stress-related delusions, or as a ruse to get help relocating to a wealthier country. Even if it were to turn out that he and his family aren't in actual danger, after what he survived in 1994, it's apparent that he needs to be in an environment that doesn't lead him to fear that the life he has rebuilt since the genocide might be destroyed.

I've finally managed to convince him that attempting to live and work illegally in a country such as the U.S., especially in the current economic and anti-Third-World-immigrant climate, could more easily add to his troubles than solve them.

Possibilities I need to explore for him include obtaining a student visa, and legal work opportunities in countries such as Dubai, and the question of whether he would be able to earn enough money doing unskilled labor in such a country to help pay for his education if he were to obtain a student visa for the U.S.

Many thanks to those who have contributed helpful posts to this thread.

Despite my friend's situation and the conditions described in the various articles posted or linked to this thread, after a tenth of Rwanda's population was killed in the 1994 genocide, with over a million Rwandans having taken part in the genocide (a number that would overwhelm any criminal justice system in the world), and millions of Rwandans forced into refugee camps just outside the country, and then forcibly repatriated, I think it's difficult not to credit the Kagame regime with bringing levels of stability and safety to Rwanda that no one would have imagined possible sixteen years ago. Likewise, given Rwanda's demographics, I think the possibility needs to be considered that a completely "free and fair" election, combined with the freedoms of expression supposedly guaranteed by the U.S. first amendment, could lead to renewed ethnic violence, and possibly to the election of a government committed to "finishing the job" that the RPF interrupted in 1994.

I am gald that you picked up on the student suggestion. However, the proposed course of study should be resonably releated to what he has been doing, and it is best that he demonstrate some continuing study after his graduation. My experience was that 35 year old Africans who graduated from a high school/junior college type instituiiton 15 years earlier, and had done no studies since, were turned down when they applied to be the oldest freshman at a great plains junior college in the US. Talk about earing money in Dubai to pay for US schooling might raise the question of financial resoures for him and his family.

Could your man teach French to Americans? Dependent on the subject and demand, teachers do get job visas.

Concerning the possibility of my friend teaching French to Americans--He is fluent in French and competent in English, although in the latter is grammar isn't always perfect. I find his African accent to be clearer and easier to understand than the rapid-fire, slurred French spoken in Paris. He doesn't have any post-secondary education, but if he had a job offer and a visa he'd be thrilled to work anywhere in the American or Canadian boondocks.

This of course is getting away from the subject of "Rwanda," but is Dutch_Uncle or anyone else in a position to have a sense as to whether, given the above background, he'd have a chance to get any type of job (and visa) teaching French in North America.

He is also fluent in Swahili and, of course, Kinyerwanda. Based on what he taught me concerning Rwanda, he would be a patient, compassionate, and gifted teacher.