How much danger does this person seem to be in?

Wise words from #9. I would just add that usually it is impossible to obtain refugee status before leaving your country of origin. Britain, for example, only allows people to make a claim for political asylum once they are already in the UK.

I agree with #9 and #10 that what my friend has shared with me so far would not make a very convincing case for refugee status. I've made clear to him that if he were to give up his job in Rwanda without establishing realistic options elsewhere, he could find himself in an extremely difficult if not permanently hopeless situation. He says there is "more to the story" that he doesn't want to put into email; I don't know exactly what to make of this claim.

Based on my impressions of Rwanda during two months in 2008, it's difficult for me to believe that what he has mentioned could put him in danger, as distinguished from an creating an uncomfortable or precarious position at his job.

Not having been in Rwanda for two years, the purpose of my OP is to try to find out if
the apparent changes in the climate there are a sufficient basis for someone in his position to be worried enough to leave the country and his job, without a realistic hope of being able to live and work elsewhere. My instinct is to advise him not to leave, and that the current tension could easily subside after the August election. But first I want to make sure I know what I'm talking about.

Aside from the simplistic indulgence in exaggeration of poster #5 (Sarah), one thing might need to be noted. If the contents of the assumed e-mail were passed to the “alleged” high-ranking officer, you would by now have received new developments from your friend - in the sense that individuals in similar circumstances are decently requested on optional basis to bring up some minimum of relevant details for eventual judicial proceedings and data recording.

Revisiting the genocide in 1994 with challenging attitude (which no body in Rwanda perceives as, “double genocide”) is quite commonly accepted in Rwanda.

Probably, your friend is teased by the western world! But not aware that the above-mentioned lady has Abandoned her poverty and unemployment driven county (Coventry, UK) for Rwanda - the future Hong kong of Africa. Off topic, tut mir sehr leid.

(#12) Africanexplorer, I'm sorry that you feel the need to use this thread (and this Web site) to make gratuitous, personal comments about one of its contributors, and then go off muttering (apparently to yourself) in German.

Andrewkauf, personally I don't think you should attempt to assess the risk faced by your friend. He knows more than you do about what is happening in his own country, and the various options open to him.

However, you could help him a great deal by letting him know what would be likely to happen if he were to arrive in your country and present himself as a refugee. Let him know something about the procedures involved in claiming Asylum, the situations that do or do not lead to a person being recognised as a refugee, and the kind of evidence that they need to present. And of course he should know about the conditions facing asylum-seekers: in the UK it can take years for a decision to be made, and during that period they are not allowed to work (not that there are any jobs anyway) and so often live in desperate poverty.

Post #15 is offensive and raving, and makes me doubt the mental health of "African Explorer" No such thing is clear to me, to put it mildly.

Voyager, Thank you in particular for your two most recent posts here. #16 sums up what seems to be going on with #15, so I won't waste more time on him.

Over the past five weeks, as per your suggestion in #14, I've sent my friend a number of emails describing the requirements and difficulties of obtaining refugee status here in the U.S. He replies to these without really acknowledging the or responding to the concerns. Somewhat similarly, he says he fears for his life and the safety of his family, but hasn't mentioned any specifics, other than the few details I've previously included on this thread.

In April 2008, a month after my departure, he wrote that he no longer felt "stable," after a grenade had been tossed in an area he'd left minutes earlier. After some erratic-sounding emails he returned to what had seemed to me was his usual self. Since it was this past April that he began sending me emails about being in danger and needing to leave Rwanda ASAP, I've been wondering about the extent to which there might be a PTSD component to his perceptions, perhaps triggered by the difficulties many survivors experience during the month-long genocide commemorations. He was 14-15 during the genocide, which he spent in hiding and on the run between hide-outs, while one member of his family after another died from disease and starvation, or else was killed. The concern about PTSD possibly distorting his perceptions, along with the scarcity of details and the tone of desperation in his emails since April, is why I'm trying to get some type of idea as to the actual dangers he might be facing.

But beyond the concerns about my friend and how I might best advise him, having spent two months in Rwanda and been amazed at the extent to which people are trying to rebuild and continue their lives after what they survived in 1994, I'm anxious to know in which ways, if any, life in Rwanda may have changed since my visit.

In the same spirit as the commnets by voyager, I feel that your, and our, contribution is not to be a navigagtor who tells the man where to go but rather a cartographer to honestly indicate the known rocks, reefs, and shoals. It is flattering to be asked to chart the life path of another, but long-distance diagnosis is a high risk activity.

Hi, Andrew,

Your compassion is to be commended. Your friend's story is not only highly plausible, but sadly, it's extremely common. Clearly, Voyager_2002 has never lived in or known anyone in Rwanda, for friends who work there constantly complain of emails intercepted and read, of their home phones being tapped--it's known to all. The Rwandan Secret Service is remarkably strong. Just FYI, they constantly screen any Rwandan political or touristic websites like this one.

Anyone who challenges Kagame's verson of history is considered anti-government, and countless numbers who protested the slaughtering of innocent people both in Rwanda AFTER the genodice and Congo by the RPF have disappeared. Considering that Rwanda is so close to elections, and that opponents are shedding light on Kagame's bloody history, it's highly likely that his life is in danger.

And I have to HIGHLY disagree with Dutch_Uncle, whom I doubt ever lived in Rwanda. Of COURSE crossing one RPF Official is considered highly anti-government, when it consists in challenging RPF versions of the genocide and post-genocide period. I would suggest that you do a little background reading on post-genocide Rwanda and the atrocities of the RPF during this period.