Pricey Vancouver real estate
Replies: 43 - Last Post: Oct 15, 2012 7:43 PM Last Post By: JJack
Sep 28, 2012 3:02 PM
Sep 28, 2012 3:08 PM
you were talking about trends in Vancouver, are you now retracting that?
I'm telling you your numbers are worse than they were right before a big drop in those markets. You know what your numbers look like? Phoenix, 2008.
This thread was about your supreme confidence that the Vancouver market was not overpriced because houses cost more somewhere else. I have demonstrated that your supply/demand numbers are frightening. I think they are unprecedented in Vancouver, so let's not pretend your 'mystery graph' of what happened before has any meaning.
I do not hate anything about Vancouver or its markets, but only an ignoramus would ignore lsiting numbers like those.
I am confident that unless a whole shitload of buyers appear right now, your prices are going to take a dive this winter.
Yes, the numbers I gave you are current.
I hope your anecdote is as important.
Sep 28, 2012 3:20 PM
32I'm telling you your numbers are worse than they were right before a big drop in those markets. You know what your numbers look like? Phoenix, 2008
So we are looking at a price drop even larger than 15-20%! Ouch.
I have demonstrated that your supply/demand numbers are frightening
You demonstrated your own fear, that's all.
I am confident that unless a whole shitload of buyers appear right now, your prices are going to take a dive this winter
Ok well I guess that will serve as a rough timeline. Let's revisit this in a few months shall we and see where the prices are at? How about Dec 01? I'll bump this thread up on that date and we'll see where we're at. Time will tell.
Sep 30, 2012 10:43 AM
Oct 1, 2012 6:04 PM
34It's remarkable that anyone would believe that statistics for Whistler can be confidently transferred to Vancouver. One is a seasonal destination resort experiencing a predictable decline from speculative prices inflated by the uniquely high demand created by the Winter Olympics. The other is a premier Canadian city with a very diverse economy. So many people would note the millions of differences rather than the few similarities.
Anyone interested in comparing apples with apples rather than apples with gondolas, would find genuine Vancouver statistics so much more relevant. Fortunately, the nice folks at the Vancouver Real Estate Board are a fine source of exactly that sort of data. Here's what they have to say regarding August of 2012:
1) Home sale activity remained below long-term averages in the Greater Vancouver housing market in August.
2) Residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties reached 1,649 in August, a 30.7 per cent decline compared to the 2,378 sales in August 2011 and a 21.4 per cent decline compared to the 2,098 sales in July 2012.
August sales were the second lowest total for the month in the region since 1998 and 39.2 per cent below the 10-year August sales average of 2,711.
“Home sales this summer have been lower than we’ve seen for most of the past ten years, yet we continue to see relative stability when it comes to prices,” Eugen Klein, REBGV president said.
3) New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totaled 4,044 in August. This represents a 13.7 per cent decline compared to August 2011 when 4,685 properties were listed for sale on the MLS, and a 15.8 per cent decline compared to the 4,802 new listings in July 2012.
“For sellers it’s critical to work with your realtor to understand today’s market and to develop the best strategy for selling your home,” Klein said. “On average it’s taking about two months for a home to sell on the MLS in Greater Vancouver today.”
4) At 17,567, the total number of residential property listings increased 13.8 per cent from this time last year and declined 2.8 per cent compared to July 2012.
“Today, our sales-to-active-listings ratio sits at 9 per cent, which puts us in a buyer’s market. This ratio has been declining in our market since March when it was 19 per cent,” Klein said.
5) The Housing Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver is $609,500. This represents a decline of 0.5% compared to this time last year and a decline of 1.1% compared to last month.+
To summarize, sales volume has fallen from its superheated peak, but prices are relatively stable. There's actually a declining trend in available properties, so while sales are down, so are new listings, meaning less people are trying to sell. This isn't a panic like Phoenix in 2008. Further, Jack's anecdotal evidence based on the quick sales in his neighborhood is largely borne out by the two-month average that a Vancouver home currently spends on the market. Looks like the soft landing is happening on schedule.
A "jeanius" who confidently cites Phoenix's realty history as a mirror of what's currently happening in Vancouver should be able to instantly tell us the average amount of time a house spent listed in that market in 2007-2009 before being sold, and how much the price declined in the interval. To avoid the Vancouver vs Whistler issue, it would be best if the evidence provided could actually be from Phoenix itself, as opposed to being a wild extrapolation based on figures from Las Vegas.
I'll help. Forty-seven seconds of research revealed that between January, 2007, and early 2009, median home prices in Phoenix fell from $235,000 to $80,000. I'm guessing that houses were sitting for a little longer than two months! Let's keep that price decline in mind to use as a benchmark when we check Vancouver prices in December. The claim is that Vancouver's rate of decline will be comparable, right?
If the Phoenix analogy is going to prove correct, the median price of a Vancouver house in a year needs to drop from $609,500 to about $207,500. Right. Speak about bold predictions! It's risky to generalize from anecdotal evidence, but it beats the hell out of wild predictions based on pretty much nothing.
Oct 5, 2012 11:06 AM
35Emotions have no place in predicting where a market will go. In fact it's probably impossible to predict such a thing, that's why economists are made fun of so much. I don't try, I'm already in the market and for the long term so it's all just noise to me.
My wife and I are more examples of average people making it work in the city. We're in our early 30's, both draw average incomes and after 10 years of buying and upgrading homes we've bought a nice freestanding old home in Hastings-Sunrise, where I imagine we'll stay for a while.
Yeah it's expensive, but I consider it a better investment than the suburbs because among other things I don't need to worry about future tolls and rising fuel costs. It's also a mature neighbourhood so I don't need to fret about developers encroaching on surrounding forest or something. I must admit the suburbs never appealed to me because of the car and big box culture and I doubt they ever will, although I there are some scenic areas.
Oct 5, 2012 11:29 AM
Oct 5, 2012 6:55 PM
37Thoughtpolice, don't play fugitive weasel on meth. Your claim wasn't that Vancouver's situation is like Edmonton or Calgary. In fact, you specifically rejected that comparison in #32, in favor of, "I'm telling you your numbers are worse than they were right before a big drop in those markets. You know what your numbers look like? Phoenix, 2008." That's the BS you're stuck with.
So my, "The claim is that Vancouver's rate of decline will be comparable, right?", refers to your Phoenix reference, not the comparisons to Alberta that you specifically rejected in post 32, and would now desperately love to resurrect.
Lest your confusion continue to compound, here's the Phoenix-to-Vancouver ratio that has to occur for your Chicken Little act to be anything but a colossal pratfall. Learn it, know it, live it: "If the Phoenix analogy is going to prove correct, the median price of a Vancouver house in a year needs to drop from $609,500 to about $207,500."
Would you like to put real money on your pitiful piece of paranoid prescience? No? Good idea!
Oct 5, 2012 10:26 PM
Oct 7, 2012 12:37 AM
Oct 9, 2012 11:54 AM
40Wow, TP compares Phoenix's real estate market with Vancouver's and then pretends he didn't. Classic moments in real estate 'analysis'....up there with Cogito's pronouncement that real estate values never fall on an island.
Oct 11, 2012 7:00 AM
41"J_Bone! Good to see you back, how was your year sabbatical due to your losing of the HST bet with Jjack? "
It was alright, haha you remembered about that. I troll the Vancouver reddit forums sometimes now, it's a lot more active than this board.
Oct 12, 2012 8:26 AM
Oct 15, 2012 7:43 PM
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